Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 261952
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
352 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight-Wednesday...The mid-level ridge will continue to shift
eastward towards the Atlantic tonight due to the approaching trough
moving across the central US. At the surface, the high extending
southward across the Florida peninsula will move eastward tonight as
the weak surface low develops near the AL/GA border and lifts
northeastward, with its attendant cold front slowly approaching the
peninsula through Wednesday. In general, conditions are forecast to
remain mostly dry across the area tonight into Wednesday morning,
with the south-southeast flow helping to advect moisture northward
across the peninsula. As a result, increasing cloud coverage is
expected to continue, with mostly cloudy skies forecast for
Wednesday. Morning lows will generally be in the mid 60s.

By Wednesday afternoon, the front is forecast to approach the Big
Bend, with a secondary low developing in the Gulf of Mexico along
the boundary and lifting northward. Locally, rain chances are
forecast to increase as showers and even storms develop out ahead of
the front. Rain and storm chances are highest near and north of the
I-4 corridor on Wednesday afternoon, with PoPs generally 20 to 50
percent. The Storm Prediction Center has also highlighted the far
northern portions of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for
severe weather Wednesday afternoon. The environment looks
conditionally favorable for strong to marginally severe weather.
Surface-based CAPE values are forecast to be around 500 J/kg across
northern Lake and Volusia counties with dewpoints well above 60
degrees and 500 mb temperatures right around -11C. Cloud cover could
become a limiting factor, reducing the amount of daytime heating out
ahead of the front. However, strong to marginally severe storms
cannot be ruled out, and any storms that do develop may be capable
of producing frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, gusty winds
40 to 60 mph, hail up to 1 inch, and heavy downpours. Additionally,
outflow boundaries may interact with the east coast sea breeze,
which could lead to the development of a brief tornado or
waterspout, though confidence in this remains low. Coverage of
showers and storms will continue to increase into the overnight
hours.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be warm, with afternoon highs
climbing into the mid 80s along the coast and in the mid to upper
80s across the interior.

Wednesday Night-Thursday...A cold front approaches east central
Florida Wednesday night, moving in vicinity of the I-4 corridor
early Thursday. Global models indicate the front will quickly move
across the area through late morning, moving south of Lake
Okeechobee into the afternoon. Greatest coverage of showers (60%)
and isolated storms is forecast along and north of the I-4 corridor
early Thursday morning, ahead of the front. Coverage dwindles as the
front moves southward, with only a mention of scattered showers and
isolated storms south of I-4 into late morning and the early
afternoon. Light south to southwest flow Wednesday night veers
northwest behind the front becoming breezy on Thursday. Showers and
overcast skies will quickly clear as a dry airmass advects southward
across central Florida. Temperatures cool compared to prior days,
with highs ranging the upper 70s (north) to lower 80s (south).

Friday-Tuesday...Surface high pressure across the southeast U.S.
moves southeastward into late week, settling across the western
Atlantic by Sunday. Ridging aloft gradually drifts eastward across
the Gulf of Mexico through the period. Northerly winds veer east on
Friday remaining gusty through the afternoon. Winds diminish by
Saturday becoming light and variable into early next week as high
pressure takes control. A dry airmass will promote fire sensitive
conditions, particularly across the north interior where minRH
values fall between 30-35 percent through the weekend. High
temperatures ranging the mid to upper 70s on Friday will follow a
warming trend into next week, nearing 90 degrees by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Tonight-Wednesday...Hazardous boating conditions will prevail across
the local Atlantic waters tonight, with seas generally between 6 to
9 feet and south-southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. In addition, an
increasing long-period swell will contribute to hazardous conditions
near the inlets. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all
legs of the local waters through 11 AM on Wednesday. Wednesday
afternoon, conditions will improve slightly across the nearshore
Volusia and Brevard waters, with seas 4 to 6 feet. Small craft will
need to exercise caution, especially near inlets. Across the Gulf
Stream, conditions will remain hazardous through 8 PM on Wednesday
with seas 6 to 8 feet. The Small Craft Advisory will remain in
effect for the Gulf Stream waters through 8 PM on Wednesday.

Mostly dry conditions will persist across the local Atlantic waters
tonight into Wednesday morning. A cold front will begin to approach
the Florida peninsula on Wednesday, with increasing rain and storms
chances forecast starting Wednesday evening. Any storms that develop
may be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds
in excess of 35 knots, hail, and heavy downpours. A brief waterspout
cannot be fully ruled out, though confidence in this remains low.

Thursday-Saturday...Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
lightning storms are forecast on Thursday as a cold front moves
southward across the local Atlantic waters. Northerly winds
increasing to around 20-25 knots behind the front will promote
hazardous boating conditions into late week. Seas of 4-6 ft Thursday
morning become widely 6-8 ft by Friday morning. North winds decrease
to 10-15 kts by Friday afternoon, lightly veering south into
Saturday. Seas subside to become 4-5 ft by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Thursday-Sunday (modified previous)...After a cold front clears east
central Florida into early Thursday afternoon, breezy NW winds will
lead to rapid drying behind the front. Min RH values into mid to
late Thursday afternoon are forecast to fall as low as the upper 30s
to low 40s across the interior, which will lead to increased fire
sensitivity. Drier conditions then prevail behind the front late
week into the weekend, with Min RH values falling to critically low
values as low as the low to mid 30s, primarily over the interior
each afternoon from Friday through Sunday. N/NE winds will be around
10 to 15 mph on Friday, but will diminish and be more variable into
the weekend as high settles across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions prevailing through the period. Southerly winds 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots this afternoon will back to out
of the southeast at 5 to 10 knots overnight. Winds forecast to
become southerly after 14Z, with wind speeds 10 to 15 knots. No
VIS or CIG concerns through the period. Dry conditions persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  66  83  64 /   0   0  30  60
MCO  85  67  86  68 /   0   0  20  60
MLB  82  68  83  67 /   0   0  10  30
VRB  83  67  85  67 /   0   0  10  20
LEE  85  67  84  65 /   0   0  40  60
SFB  85  67  86  66 /   0   0  30  60
ORL  86  68  86  67 /   0   0  20  60
FPR  83  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tollefsen
LONG TERM....Law
AVIATION...Tollefsen


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