Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
000
FNUS72 KMLB 221802
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Smokey Helibase Spot Weather...USFS
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
202 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 EDT on March 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...An unsettled weather pattern will continue into
Saturday. Only an isolated lightning storm threat tonight and
on Saturday. Any strong to severe storm threat would occur
Saturday morning or early afternoon, but confidence in models
is low in this scenario and mostly likely well south of the
area in question. If storms were to develop, then yes, a gusty
wind and hail threat would exist due to cold air aloft.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of showers late
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 12 to 13 mph with frequent higher
                    gusts.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 24 mph.
Dispersion index....55 decreasing to 43 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (EDT)      2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........92     94
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10
LAL.............1      1
Temp............72     72
RH..............73     73
20 ft wind......SE 13  S 13
20 ft wind gust.17     17
Surface wind....SE 13  S 13
Surface wnd gst.17     17
Mix hgt (ft)....2700   2900
Transport wind..SE 24  S 21
Dispersion idx..55     47
LVORI...........3      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers in
                    the evening, then showers likely and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0500, then 1-8 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 7 to 12 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 18 mph.
Dispersion index....34 decreasing to around 12.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........95     87     85     84     83     86
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30     40     40     20     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............72     67     64     63     62     62
RH..............73     87     93     90     90     90
20 ft wind......S 12   S 10   S 8    S 8    S 8    S 8
20 ft wind gust.16     14
Surface wind....S 12   S 10   S 8    S 8    S 8    S 8
Surface wnd gst.16     14
Mix hgt (ft)....2100   800    700    500    600    500
Transport wind..S 18   S 17   S 14   S 13   S 15   SW 14
Dispersion idx..34     15     13     12     13     12
LVORI...........3      4      5      5      5      5

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers likely in
                    the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    through the day. Slight chance of showers in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the west
                    8 to 13 mph late in the morning with some higher
                    gusts.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 4800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest to West 10 to 18 mph.
Dispersion index....11 increasing to around 79.
LVORI...............5 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........82        70        60        47
Weather cov.....LIKELY    CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60        30        20        20
LAL.............2         2         2         2
Temp............62        64        76        79
RH..............90        93        66        52
20 FT wind......S 6       SW 6      W 10G14   W 13G17
Surface wind....S 6       SW 6      W 10G14   W 13G17
Mix hgt (ft)....600       1200      3000      4600
Transport wind..SW 12     SW 12     W 17      W 18
Dispersion idx..11        23        55        75
LVORI...........5         4         2         1

$$
Forecaster...Sedlock
Requested by...Joshua Quinn
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 2408209.0/MLB
.DELDT 03/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joshua.quinn@usda.gov


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.