Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 162002
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions through early next week.

- Winds diminish slightly tonight and Sunday, however gusts
  upwards of 35 mph will remain possible at times.

- Light precipitation chances return for the end of the work
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

It`s been an interesting day of weather following the passage of a
cold front early this morning. Early morning temperatures in the low
50s cooled quickly to the upper 30s and low 40s after daybreak
following the frontal passage, but have warmed back into the mid 40s
early this afternoon. Northwesterly winds have taken center stage
today, with the highest gusts in the 35-40 mph range. Despite
minimum RH values between 30-40 percent, fire weather concerns
remain at critical levels this afternoon due to very dry fuels and
continued strong northwesterly winds. A Red Flag Warning continues
through 8 PM this evening. Additional fire weather headlines are
possible Sunday, though winds are expected to be slightly less
intense (sustained winds 15-20 mph & gusts up to 35 mph). Of course,
it`s also forecast to be much colder.

Winds have strengthened in response to a tight pressure gradient
associated with a potent ~990s mb surface low moving southeast out
of Ontario into the eastern Great Lakes. A reinforcing shot of cold
air will advect southward into the Upper Midwest tonight. Lows will
dip into the upper teens/low 20s overnight, which will combine with
breezy winds to produce wind chills in the single digits around
daybreak. There is a low chance that a few flurries fly from Sunday
afternoon through midday Monday, though any occurrence would be
rather inconsequential. RAP forecast soundings depict marginal
saturation in the DGZ around 5kft, in tandem with some low-level
forcing. For now, we`ve opted to keep any appreciable PoPS out of
the grids, but will leave the door open for introducing flurries
should forthcoming CAMs illustrate this trend further. Colder, below
normal air sticks with us through the early part of the week, as
highs are forecast to top out in the 30s Sunday and Monday.
Hopefully the record warmth as of late did not fool anybody into
putting the cold weather gear away just yet!

A fast moving clipper will slide into the Great Lakes Tuesday, with
the best chance for precipitation to the east of Minnesota and
western Wisconsin. While the forecast is expected to remain dry, we
are forecasting a notable one-day warm up, as a wing of warm
advection on the southwest flank of the clipper moves overhead.
Latest NBM guidance seems to have good handle on this warm up, with
highs in the mid to upper 40s possible over much of the area. We`ll
need to keep an eye on the wind projections for Tuesday, as the
close proximity to the progged surface low may yield advisory level
winds (and potential fire weather concerns) through the afternoon.
The brief warm up will give way to cooler temperatures back in the
upper 30s/low 40s by Wednesday and Thursday.

We can use one word to describe the end of the work week into next
weekend: active. While there remains a significant amount of
uncertainty in the evolution of several upper-level features
across the global guidance, the combined suite of solutions
brings higher probabilities for measurable precipitation than
we`ve seen in some time. Beginning Thursday, a shortwave is
forecast to move into the Northern Plains amid large scale zonal
flow aloft. Forecast thermal profiles tend to support snow as
the dominant p-type across the region. NBM PoPs in the 30-50%
range seem fair at this distance, for what appears to be
scattered snow showers. Following this wave, ensembles
advertise a relatively deep trough digging over the western
CONUS next weekend, with the potential for a more significant
storm system to develop in response. Again, a large amount of
variability exists among the guidance this afternoon, but the
active pattern with potential precipitation chances bears
watching.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Strong northwesterly flow prevails at all TAF sites early this
afternoon. The strongest winds will continue through early
evening, before diminishing slightly overnight. It will still
be quite breezy overnight, with gusts in the 20-25 kt range. The
wind forecast remains breezy tomorrow, with sustained winds of
15-20 kts and gusts increasing to 25-30kts. Morning MVFR
stratus across central Minnesota has had a tendency to lift,
such that all TAF sites are forecast to remain VFR through the
period. BKN/OVC ceilings around 4-5k ft expected. A few flurries
may fly tomorrow afternoon, but confidence is too low to
include in the 18z TAFs.

KMSP...Northwest flow continues to prevail through the period,
with little in the way of expected crosswind concerns on the
parallels. We`ve trended the TAF up to VFR throughout, with
ceilings near 4k ft. Hi-res guidance points to the chance of a
snowflake or two flying beneath stratus tomorrow afternoon, but
confidence in potential visibility reductions is low at this
time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25-30kts.
WED...VFR. Winds NW 10-15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

After yesterday`s collab on the Fire Wx Watch, additional
discussion overnight while keeping in mind VERY dry fuels has
led to an expansion in the areal composition of the Watch to run
with a Red Flag Warning for much of central-southern MN. Despite
RH`s expected to bottom out only around 30 percent, as opposed
to the traditional 25 percent, the excessively dry fuels with
the strong winds will lead to a heightened fire danger as any
outdoor burns may quickly spread. A similar situation could
develop Sunday despite colder temperatures, but RH may be a bit
drier and winds may be a bit lighter.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-
     Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-
     Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-
     Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
     Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Watonwan-
     Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...Strus
FIRE WEATHER...JPC


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