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000
FXUS63 KMPX 150834
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
334 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST INCLUDES THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA.  FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  VARIOUS HIRES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
LOCAL MODEL ALL SHOW SOME AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...TRAILING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
THIS MORNING.  ACTIVITY FAIRLY HIGH BASED AND ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT.  THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INCLUDES DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.  SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON READINGS
75 TO 80 MOST SECTIONS.  WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND COLD
FRONT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  THIS
SHOULD SLACKEN WINDS FURTHER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH TODAY.  RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL STILL DROP OFF TO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AS WELL
AND WILL HEADLINE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOULD SEE THE MID CLOUDS EXIT THE SOUTH BY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LEFTOVER MID CLOUDS EXITING INTO WISCONSIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN
DURING THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP OFF WITH AREAS THAT
REMAIN CLEAR...AND LIGHT WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW AND
BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS OUT
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE MAJORITY OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF LIFT THE FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA...SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ON SATURDAY FOUR
CORNERS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIP EXPECTED. KEPT LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRANSITION
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO A CUTOFF LOW THAT SPINS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND BRINGS COOL WET WEATHER. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE LINGERED THE WIND GUSTS NEAR
20 KTS LONGER THIS MORNING AS IT COULD REMAIN BREEZY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. GRADUAL DIMINISHING BY SUNRISE IS STILL EXPECTED...JUST
GOING A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z TAF INDICATED. PERHAPS SOME MID-
HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW.

KMSP...

NO CEILING...VISIBILITY OR PRECIP PROBLEMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GET DOWN NEAR OR JUST BELOW 10 KTS BY
THE MORNING RUSH...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DIRECTION EVEN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. COULD SEE BACKING OF 20-40 DEGREES FROM WHERE WE
ARE RIGHT NOW AT 310 DEGREES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A W-NW WIND
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...PERHAPS MORE W-SW BY THE EVENING COMMUTE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. E-SE WIND 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH MVFR/-TSRA LIKELY. SE WINDS 10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR OR LOWER WITH -TSRA LIKELY. SE WINDS 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF