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000
FXUS63 KMPX 130413
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1113 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

AFTER TSTMS EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING...WEATHER WILL BE MUCH
QUIETER...AND DRIER ON THU. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SPINNING IN NE
SD IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TSTMS ACROSS S MN. CLUSTERS OF STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER FEATURE IN SW/SC
MN...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NE WHILE THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
SHIFTS SE. SO FAR TODAY...THE BIGGEST THREAT IN OUR AREA HAS BEEN
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
RECEIVED 3+ INCHES OF RAIN. THE PROSPECTS OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE WX
ACROSS S MN/W WI IS LOW DUE TO THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS/
INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR S AND E...BUT ANY
ISOLATED SEVERE WX WE DO GET SHOULD BE OF THE WIND VARIETY. THE
LAST OF THE -SHRA/TS SHOULD EXIT MPX CWA BY 02Z...WITH CLEARING
RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM N TO S. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT INTO W MN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH A SLOWLY
MOVING LOW HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
OF A GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...WE DID INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY
AND WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS VERY NEAR AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SE FLOW ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MN FRIDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT... WILL
MOVE EITHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT
PERHAPS ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IS AIMED AT FAR SOUTHERN MN LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INCREASES
DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. FORECAST PW
VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL NEARLY
1.75 INCHES... OR ABOUT 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS RIGHT AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HENCE...HIGH POPS REMAIN IN PLAY
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FA.

THE NAM IS THE ONLY SOLUTION THAT DRIES THE CWA EARLY ON SATURDAY
AS IT PUSHES THE FRONT EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER ON SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE
LATTER SOLUTIONS WITH SMALL POPS HELD ON TO FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS A RATHER
STRONG SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ITS
QUITE POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ON MONDAY WITH THE SHOWERS DIMINISHING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER BACK TO BACK. THE PATTERN DOES NOT HOLD LONG AS MORE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING IS INDICATED TO MOVE INTO THE FA FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A COOL
START WITH HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...READINGS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

QUIET AVIATION PERIOD AHEAD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. KNOCKED WIND
SPEEDS DOWN EVER SO SLIGHTLY...AND WITH RAINS EARLIER
TODAY...STILL CONCERNED WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT
WESTERN SITES /RWF AND AXN/...SO INCLUDED 5SM BR AT THOSE SITES.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NW TO NE...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN
THIS ISSUANCE...BUT LATER SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR OVERNIGHT
DEVELOPMENT. COUNTING ON DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW AND WIND SPEEDS
STAYING JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH DEVELOPMENT AT THE
TERMINAL. NEGATIVE CU RULE THURSDAY LEAD TO THE MENTION OF
FEW050. NORTHWEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SE WIND 10-20KTS.
FRI NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE. TSRA POSSIBLE. S BCMG W 10KTS.
SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE.  WINDS BECOMING WEST 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD