390
FXUS63 KMPX 081733
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1233 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected this afternoon
  and tonight across southern Minnesota. Locally heavy rain and
  a few strong or severe storms are possible.

- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through
  early next week.

- Temperatures will remain near or above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Skies are mainly clear early this morning and winds are light.
Areas of dense fog have developed over WI and in Kanabec and
Chisago counties in MN. If it continues to expand during the
next hour or two, may need to consider a Dense Fog Advisory
through early morning.

Ample sunshine early today will allow temperatures to warm into
the 70s. A complex upper level pattern with several lows
spanning the northern CONUS will lead to several areas of
convective development today. A low approaching the mid
Missouri Valley will set up a trough axis northwest into
southwestern MN and eastern SD this afternoon. Steep mid level
lapse rates with pockets of 7.5 C/km and strong surface heating
will lead to SBCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will develop after 20Z near the trough axis and
may form clusters into tonight. Shear is somewhat lacking per
forecast soundings, but the most vigorous updrafts could still
produce marginally severe hail and strong winds. Locally heavy
rainfall is also possible. Thunderstorms are possible farther
north and east late this afternoon, but low level convergence is
better near the trough axis which is where the best coverage
will be. The low will push east overnight and convection should
wane gradually through tonight and into early Thursday.

Quiet weather follows Thursday afternoon through Friday morning,
then a clipper will slide southeast to the Great Lakes Friday
afternoon and Friday night. A pocket of steeper lapse rates will
accompany the wave during peak heating Friday afternoon which
will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across
central and eastern MN into WI.

This weekend and early next week will feature several small
scale disturbances traversing the region, each with low
predictability. Any of these will bring more low shower and
thunderstorm chances.

Temperatures will remain above normal for much of the period
with highs generally in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.
Some 80 degree temps are possible Sunday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

We`ll remain VFR throughout for most sites, RWF and MKT are the
exceptions. Mid level clouds will increase thru this afternoon.
We`ll see a field of CU developing across portions of SW &
S Minnesota. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
mid to late afternoon near RWF and MKT, so opted for a TEMPO
group despite decreasing confidence in the set up. ENE winds
around 10 kts may turn more NE-erly overnight into Thursday.

KMSP... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop late this afternoon south and west of the terminal. A
few could develop nearby, but confidence is fairly low on the
timing and coverage for a mention yet in the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 20G35 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...BPH