000
FXUS63 KMPX 171855
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
155 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOSCALE OBSERVATION SHOWING MUCAPE 500-1000
J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES TO 35 KTS FROM EAST CENTRAL MN
INTO WESTERN WI. ALREADY GETTING SOME SMALL SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING
OVER THIS REGION...ALONG WITH SOME REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE
VALUES INCREASE OVER 800 J/KG...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94. IF
CELLS DO DROP INTO THIS REGION AND ARE ABLE TO DRAW IN SOME OF
THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIR...WE COULD GET SOME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WATCH ISSUANCE
PER LATEST MCD FROM SPC.

ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING AND OVERALL TREND WILL
LIKELY WANE. THEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...MOVES INTO WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD
SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA ALTER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL
TRAIL POPS OFF OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT AND WILL
LINGER LONGEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DONT
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING SEVERE FOR TUESDAY.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH NEGATIVE CU RULES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE OVERALL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO PRESENCE OF
50H SHORT WAVE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT EASTERN HALF OF FA. NEW WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL PROGGED TO ENTER SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY
BECOMING CATALYST FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. VERY WEAK
SIGNATURE NOTED ON GFS40 305K ISENTROPIC ANALY...SO CHANCE POPS
SEEMED REASONABLE AT THIS JUNCTURE. VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF NEW
INTERMOUNTAIN STORM SYSTEM EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHTLY INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  ALTHOUGH
BOTH GFS40 AND EUROPEAN MAINTAIN 50H CUT OFF LOW OVER PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY
...DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF SFC CYCLONE BETWEEN
THE TWO. GFS40 HAS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND SOMEWHAT FATHER SOUTH
SOLUTION BY FRIDAY...AS COMPARED TO THE EUROPEAN. AT THIS JUNCTURE
IT APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO ENCOUNTER SEVERAL OF THE SEVERE
CATEGORY OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE BEST THETA E
ADVECTION AND NOSE OF 85KT JET CORE ARE LINING UP ATTM. DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF MOST THUNDERSTORMS OVER REGION NOTED ABOVE...
DECIDED TO BUMP UP HIGHS ON SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
ENTIRE FA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT WE COULD EASILY ENCOUNTER
LARGE SWATH OF TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S SATURDAY AFTN...AS 1000-500MB
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 579-582DAM RANGE. OF COURSE
PRESENCE OF ANY LONG LIVED CONVECTION PRECLUDED RAISING TEMPS INTO THIS
RANGE FOR NOW. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS SE FROM NE MN INTO NE NEBRASKA. POSSIBILITY FOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN MN/WEST CENTRAL WI SUNDAY AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT TUESDAY...ENHANCING THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS TIME PERIOD. COOL FRONT WILL FINALLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO
IOWA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTN. COOLER AIR FUNNELING IN BEHIND LARGE 50H
VORTEX OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL RETURN HIGH TEMPS BACK TO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 RANGE NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

SURFACE FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDER ASSCOIATED...SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THIS
EVENING...WITH A DIURNAL TREND. WILL MENTION THUNDER OVER WC
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EAST CENTRAL
MN...AS SREF 1 HOUR THUNDER FORECAST INDICATED COULD SEE SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY HERE AS WELL. HAIL AND STORNG WIND GUSTS REMAINA
POSSIBILITY...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF FRONT AND
DCAPE INCREASING TO OVER 1000 J/KG.  WILL HOLD ONTO VFR FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT IF A STRONGER CELL MOVES THROUGH...COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR TREND. FRONT REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY...AND MODELS TREND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING BACK
INTO WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...SPREADING SOTUHEAST TUESDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST
WITH FROPA AND EVENTUALLY EAST ON TUESDAY.

KMSP...
WILL CONTINUE VFR TREND DURING THE PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO
4-5K FEET AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER WITH SYSTEM...AND LOOK LIKE BEST SHOT WILL
BE FOUND OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO EARLY EVENING...SO ;EFT
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH CLEARING
LATE AFETRNOON...AS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MORE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROTN TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME WIND GUTS EARLY THIS AFETRNONO AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WILL DIMINSIH TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHC SHRA EARLY. ESE WINDS 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC OF MVFR AFTN/EVE SHRA/TS. S WINDS 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TS. SSE WINDS 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DWE