Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

000
FXUS63 KMPX 301730
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER AIR AND SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BEGINNING
TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AN
EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL HAD SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND WAS AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN IOWA AS OF 3 AM. AS WITH
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM A FEW DAYS AGO THAT BROUGHT A LARGE SHIELD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE AS FAR
NORTH. THEREFORE...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
IOWA/MN BORDER. ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN WILL SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...EASTWARD TO FARIBAULT AND RED WING...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG I-90. THESE AREAS WHERE THE
RAINFALL IS HEAVIEST...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID 40S
ALL DAY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN...PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR 60.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
RAINFALL TO DIMINISH AND END.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY. A FEW GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON.
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A BLOCKING PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGHS ON BOTH EAST AND WEST
COASTS...AND RESULTANT RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR AN OVERALL DRY WEEK AHEAD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BLIP
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN TROUGH IS ROTATING DOWN FROM CANADA. GIVEN
THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT ONLY A 20 POP SEEMS WARRANTED
GENERALLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR /PRIMARILY WEST
CENTRAL WI/.

OTHER THAN A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN LOWS ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI IN
THE MID 30S...BUT AFTER THAT LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE
40S...THEREFORE LOWERING THE THREAT FOR FROST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN AT MIDDAY WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE PATCHY. THESE PATCHES
WILL THEN BRUSH THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO TO KEAU DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KRWF MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES...KRWF HAS A SMALL THREAT FOR LOW MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY TONIGHT IF THE RAIN LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST. IN ADDITION...CEILINGS IN
THE 040-050 RANGE ARE LIKELY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RAIN
AREA. THIS WOULD IMPACT KRNH AND KEAU. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH SPEEDS FROM 15-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN 24-28 KNOT RANGE. THE WIND WILL SETTLE DOWN EARLY TONIGHT
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS 040-050 FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
AIRFIELD THIS EVENING WITH A FEW LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN BRUSHING
THE AIRFIELD. NORTHEAST WINDS (050-070) NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND W AT 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND WNW-NW AT 10G20KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...RAH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.