Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 210954
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER 30S. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...DONT THINK THERE WILL BE
AS MANY ICING REPORTS AS THERE WERE YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WERE
SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER. NONETHELESS...PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
ARE STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA ESPECIALLY WHERE
READINGS ARE COOLEST.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS TO INTRODUCE A
HEALTHY BURST OF SNOW ACROSS THE WISCONSIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPING
AFTER 11 AM NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER AND ADVANCING EAST NORTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE KIND OF IMPRESSIVE SHOWING
FULL SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME LIFT...AND TEMPERATURES
BELOW 5KT SOLIDLY BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT AT THE SURFACE.
THUS...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A GOOD BET...PARTICULARLY AS ONE HEADS
TOWARD DUN...BARRON...RUSK AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES WHERE IT SHOULD
PERSIST THE LONGEST. HERE...WE EXPECT AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES...BUT
AN ISOLATED 3 INCH REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PEPIN AND EAU CLAIRE
COUNTIES MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME...KEEPING SNOW
AMOUNTS LOWER.

THE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING THIS BATCH OF SNOW WILL PUSH
EAST THIS EVENING. LITTLE LIFT...BUT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR STEADY PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...BUT DRIZZLE
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE EVENING GOES ON WHEN THE MAIN
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES SOUTHEAST TOWARD SIOUX
FALLS. EVENTUALLY THE LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN STEADIER RAIN
AFTER 06-09Z ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN...WITH WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE
PERSISTING ELSEWHERE. STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S...THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ICING ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN EVOLUTION OF MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM.

ONE CHANGE IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS MORNING WAS AN
OVERALL SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER
AIR CIRCULATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH. THIS BRINGS IN A
LITTLE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. FOLLOWED A GENERAL NAM/GFS BLEND. WARMER AIR WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY. A SNOW...RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN THURSDAY OF THE CWA...WITH RAIN
AND POSSIBLE MORNING SLEET IN THE SOUTH. WILL TREND COLDER FROM
THE WEST THEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER ALL
BU THE FAR EAST COME TUESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER STRONG TURN IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST AND DRIVES STRONGER ENHANCED
FORCING OVER THIS AREA. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...WE COULD END UP WITH
A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL...INTO
EAST CENTRAL MN AND A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVERALL TRENDS TODAY
AND DETERMINE IF HEADLINES BECOME WARRANTED FOR A PORTION OF THIS
REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING RAPIDLY IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT/CHRISTMAS DAY/. THIS GENERATES A BAND OF SNOW
ACROSS A PORTION OF SOUTHERN MN. IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT HOWEVER AND
THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. THE PARALLEL GFS WAS SIMILAR TO
THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE ECMWF THIS EVENING...BUT A LITTLE
SLOWER. WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTH
DEVELOPING THURSDAY...WHICH CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

COLDER AIR DROPS OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS
DIVERGE SOME ON HANDLING THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION. WILL KEEP THE TREND DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
MONITOR TODAYS TRENDS AND SEE IF A SNOW CHANCE HAS TO BE
INTRODUCED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST BEGINS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS FROM SW MN INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN... AND LOW END MVFR CEILINGS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISC. CEILINGS HAVE ALSO BEGUN
LOWERING TO IFR IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN AMID A SHORT PERIOD OF DRIZZLE
MOVING IN. VISIBILITIES SHOULD MOSTLY STAY MVFR BUT SOME SPOTS
THAT NEVER IMPROVED TOO MUCH SATURDAY SHOULD DROP BACK TO IFR
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER CONCERN IS DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE MOVING INTO
THE ALBERT LEA AREA AND THEN KEAU AND MAYBE KRPD IN WISCONSIN.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW BUT SOME LIFT IS EVIDENT. FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN IOWA HAS TYPICALLY LASTED ONE OR TWO HOURS. KEY
QUESTION WILL BE SURFACE TEMPS BY THE TIME DRIZZLE REACHES EAU
CLAIRE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 30-32 DEGREES AROUND 12Z.
BASED ON LOWER ELEVATION OF EAU CLAIRE AIRPORT ALONG RIVER...HAVE
ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THREE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

KMSP...

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS LATE
TONIGHT... BUT CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER...REACHING IFR DURING
THE 08Z-10Z TIME. OTHER CONCERN IS DRIZZLE BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
BARELY MISS KMSP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IF KMSP DOES SEE ANY
PRECIP AROUND 10Z-12Z SUNDAY... IT MAY BE FZDZ WITH SURFACE TEMPS
AROUND 30-32 DEGREES. WILL BE WATCHING THIS CLOSELY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. CHC -RA/-IP. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.
MON...IFR. -RA WITH -RA/-SN MIX LATE. WINDS SE 8-15 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. -SN OR -RA/-SN MIX. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...MVFR. SLGT CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ085-093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...TDK





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