Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 010453
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1153 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS OVERALL CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TREND TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MN.  LATEST RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND
DISSIPATING IN THE DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.  THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL OF A NARROW BAND OF -SHRA MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  WILL RETAIN
ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION FOR A SMALL AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
03Z. CLOUDS WILL WORK OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.  SOME
INDICATION IN RH FIELDS THAT THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY THIN
SOME.  WILL MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...PARTLY CLOUDY LATE
MOST AREAS.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT...WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE
THINNEST AND WINDS LIGHTEST.  STILL SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FROST MENTION.

APPEARS TO BE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE 60S MOST AREAS...PERHAPS A 70 OR TWO IN
AREAS SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AS THE WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.
BY TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. MONDAY AND A GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY APPEAR TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF BEING THE DRY TIMEFRAMES OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...MODELS PROG A SUB-1000MB LOW TO BE NOSING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. DIURNALLY-INDUCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY SNEAK INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CHANCES ARE HIGHER OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. HIGH CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO WASH OUT AND STALL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN
PROLONGED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
MINIMAL...GIVEN THE SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE REGION FROM A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY...BUT REALLY ONLY LOOKS TO JUSTIFY
20 POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO
BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BRING
A REINFORCING TROUGH/FRONT INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAKE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER TEENS
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THE GUSTS SHOULD HANG ON AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN MN.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 12-13KTS DURING THE
DAY. GUSTS MAY HANG ON AFTER SUNSET AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SSE AT 15-20 KT.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15-20 KT.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB



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