000
FXUS63 KMPX 150108
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
808 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

IMPRESSIVE BURST OF HEAT AND FIRE WX DAY WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS MN THIS
AFTERNOON. 100 DEGREE HIGHS HAVE NOW BECOME COMMON IN SRN MN.
MORNING CLOUDS/SPRINKLES DID REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT FOR A WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A HIGHLY NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND. TEMP INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR EXAMPLE...MANKATO WENT FROM 84 TO 97 WITHIN AN HOUR
OF THE FRONT PASSING! NOT ONLY DOES IT LOOK LIKE MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI WILL SET DAILY RECORD HIGHS...BUT
THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT DOWN SOUTH...BASED ON INFO FROM THE STATE
CLIMATOLOGIST WILL ALSO BREAK THE RECORD HIGH IN MN FOR THIS
DAY...THOUGH A DEFINITIVE ANSWER ON THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
TOMORROW AFTER WE GOT ALL OF THE COOP INFORMATION IN.

BESIDE THAT...DEWPOINTS HAVE COME IN AS FORECAST...WITH MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S /AND EVEN A FEW PLACES THAT WERE LOWER STILL/...OR 10 TO
20+ DEGS BELOW WHAT MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS...AND YOU ADD IN WINDS THAT HAVE
BEEN BLOWING PRETTY PERSISTENT AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTING TO 30 TO
40 MPH AND YOU HAVE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SEVERE FIRE
BEHAVIOR IF ONE WERE TO FORM...SO RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS MORE
THAN WARRANTED.

FOR PRECIP TONIGHT...TEMP/DEWP SPREAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THE
ORDER OF 40 DEGREES IN THE WARM SECTOR...SO BELIEVE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT IT IS TOO HOT/DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION TO FORM AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MN. ADD INTO THAT THE
FACT THAT NONE OF THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION INITIATING ANYWHERE NEAR THE MPX AREA...HAVE REMOVED ANY
POPS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS AND MORE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL COME
IN FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS...DESPITE
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN MN...STILL LOOKS LIKE
LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL MN SHOULD FIND THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA FALLING BACK TO AT LEAST THE
50S. IN FACT...LOOKING BACK OVER CENTRAL NODAK...AREAS AROUND MINOT
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BACK INTO THE MID 60S...SO DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE
A SHORT STAY IN THE BLAST FURNACE. FOR HIGHS TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...AS H85 TEMPS FALL FROM THE CURRENT LEVEL OF
AROUND 25C IN SRN MN...BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL +10C.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TODAY...WHICH WILL BE MARKED BY ONE MORE MILD DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A TRANSITION TO A STORMIER PATTERN FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT MARKS THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE ADVECTION ENSUES DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH. EXPECT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD THEN SEE A BRIEF RESPITE ON FRIDAY AS WE WAIT FOR
THE PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH TO ARRIVE. STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE FRONT ARRIVES AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS CONTRIBUTE TO THE
EFFORT. THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH VARIANCE BETWEEN THE MODELS TO
DETERMINE TIMING/SPATIAL DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY OVER THE WEEKEND.
DREARY WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOMEWHERE NEAR OR OVER THE REGION.
RUN TOTAL PRECIPTIATION AMOUNTS INTO MONDAY PAINT WIDESPREAD ONE
TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE HELD TO HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. WMFNT BLITZED THROUGH
THE REGION...FORCING A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT...AND ITS TRAILING
CDFNT WILL THEN MAINTAIN THE NW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
THE MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING THE DROPOFF OF THE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
THIS EVENING. MOST MODELS PUT THE REDUCTION IN SPEEDS IN THE 02Z-
03Z TIMEFRAME SO HAVE GONE THE SAME ROUTE WITH THE TAFS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A FURTHER DROPOFF IN SPEEDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THAT LASTS THROUGH LATE MRNG BEFORE WINDS PICK UP CLOSE TO
10 KT LATE AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN TMRW EVE. SKIES WILL BE
CLR OVERNIGHT...THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTER INTO THE AREA TMRW
AFTN...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

KMSP...VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. MAIN ISSUE IS THE TIMING OF THE
DECREASE IN WIND SPEED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THAT WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 290-330 THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
MSP TAF FOR ANY QUICK AMENDMENTS. SPEEDS THEN REMAIN RATHER BENIGN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TMRW. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY
HIGH CLOUDS DURG THE DAY TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. LGT AND VRBL WINDS.
FRI...VFR WITH MVFR/-TSRA LIKELY. SE WINDS 10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR OR LOWER WITH -TSRA LIKELY. SE WINDS 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC