Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
000
FXUS63 KMPX 141904
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
204 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Little to no chance for precipitation over the next week.
- Cooling trend down to near normal to slightly below normal
temperatures on Sunday and Monday with continued near normal
to slightly above normal temperatures favored to return after
that next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Today and Friday...Dry north to northeast winds kept us on the
dry side today with only a few hundredths to around a tenth
reported across south central Minnesota. As this large system
providing high impact weather well to our south moves out, high
pressure will move into the Upper Midwest for Friday. Without
much advection or change in the airmass expect similar
temperatures tomorrow.
Saturday through Monday... A surface low will track from central
Canada into the Great Lakes region over this period. This will
provide for some precipitation chances (very low chances) and
cooler temperatures. Most of the moisture and therefore
precipitation will remain closer to the surface low over
northern Minnesota. With a lack of moisture little to no
precipitation is expected despite a favorable position for the
jet streak over the Upper Midwest. More noticeable for us will
be the cooler temperatures and increased winds. As the low
passes by the pressure gradient will increase significantly
providing for widespread gusty winds. Not much spread within
the GEFS, GEPS, and ENS ensemble systems with gusts up around 40
mph likely on Saturday. On Saturday the dry cold front should
pass through and advect much colder air in. The temperatures
won`t be much below normal, but with the continued wind it will
not be a great day to be outside as wind chills forecast in the
5 to 15 range Sunday and Monday morning. As the pressure
gradient drops winds should come in quieter on Sunday and even
more so on Monday. Still gusty on Sunday, but probably more
gusts around 30 mph than 40 mph.
Tuesday and Wednesday... On Tuesday the flow aloft switches and
we could see a return to warm air advection aloft. This brief
period of WAA could allow us to return to slightly above
normal. However there remains a lot of spread in how much WAA we
will see, so temperatures have quite a spread Tuesday and on
next week with high temperatures from down around freezing up
into the lower to mid 40s. So all around not as warm as we have
seen for much of March, but that would still be around to
slightly above normal if it were to happen. Normals do start to
increase quickly this time of year with average temperature
normals increasing by a degree every 2 to 3 days. On the
precipitation side still not a lot of hope. We have forcing,
but as moisture continues to look limited I have little hope for
precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
VFR conditions for most of this period with some MVFR possible
across western and central Minnesota sites Friday morning.
Overall the rain has remained to the south of the terminals
today with little more than OVC sky for us. These clouds will
move out with the larger system later today with a clear or
mostly clear (with some high clouds) overnight. Winds today will
be from the north to northeast and occasionally gusting up
around 20 knots. Winds will become lighter tonight and shift to
the northwest.
KMSP... VFR through the day with winds as the main impact today.
North to northeast winds continue with gusts up to around 20
knots this afternoon. During periods with a more northeasterly
wind this could cause some crosswind issues with the parallels.
Winds will shift to a more consistent northerly direction this
evening before going to the northwest by tomorrow morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 15-25G35-40kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G25-35kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC