Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 231052
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS THE EXTENT OF WARMING TODAY ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND THUNDER THREAT INTO
TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS...WITH RESULTANT RIDGING DEVELOPING INTO THE HIGHS
PLAINS.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN MN THIS MORNING.  ALSO...SOME STRATUS AND LEFT
OVER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER IOWA IS STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING...AFFECTING PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CWA.  WILL HAVE TO BRING SOME OF THIS LOWER CLOUD COVER
OVER THE EAST DURING THE MORNING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS THE METRO. 70S ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO MUCH OF
THE MN PORTION  OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
TO THE EAST AND INTO NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE MN CWA. LARGE PLUME OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME MUCAPE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MN
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS GENERATE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.  THE FIRST
CONCENTRATED AREA IN OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE/HEAT/INSTABILITY. THIS DOES
LOOK TO BE THE BEST AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST HIRES
SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS AS WELL.  THE OTHER POSSIBLE AREA SEEING A
SMALL CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TO THE FAR SOUTH.  THE NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE LLJ AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO THE
AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SOAKER FOR MIDWEEK.

AS THE SHORT TERM SECTION ALLUDED TO...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL MN/WESTERN WI...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. NOT
SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR THE SOUTHERN BATCH AND THINK THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING THAT POTENTIAL A BIT WITH THE
FRONT AND THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TO THE NORTH. THE WRFARW/NMM ARE
COMPLETELY DRY IN THOSE AREAS. UNLESS THERE IS A WAVE STRONGER
THAN THE WEAK SPOKES OF VORTICITY COMING THROUGH DURING THAT
TIME...THE HI-RES MODELS WILL PROBABLY WIN OUT. DID KEEP CHC POPS
ACROSS SRN MN AT THIS JUNCTURE AND LIKELIES FURTHER NORTH/EAST
WHERE SUPPORT IS GREATER FOR ACTIVITY.

WHAT HAPPENS DURING THE MORNING WILL HAVE STRONG IMPLICATIONS ON
SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY. IF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS RIGHT
WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING...THERE
WILL BE A CLEAN ATMOSPHERE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER
70S AND A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE BASED
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG TO DEVELOP RELATIVELY EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
BEGINS ACCELERATING SOUTH BETWEEN 18-21Z...THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ALONG IT FROM WILLMAR TO MINNEAPOLIS AND EAU CLAIRE...AND ALONG
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN
EAST OF REDWOOD FALLS. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WHICH COULD BE ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW NEAR THE FRONT
COULD IMPROVE THE PROBABILITY OF WEAK TORNADOES...AND
STRENGTHENING 500 MB FLOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW COULD ORGANIZE
STORMS INTO SUPERCELLS. PLENTY TO WATCH IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THINK THE SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK IS THE RIGHT APPROACH UNTIL
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT BECOME MORE CLEAR. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGER FORCING OVERSPREAD
THE REGION...EVEN WITH PRECEDING MORNING ACTIVITY. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THAT WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THIS POTENT WAVE
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ENGULF THE AREA MIDWEEK. A COOL EASTERLY FLOW
AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY.
THERE IS A RELATIVELY GOOD CHANCE YET ANOTHER SOUTHWESTERN WAVE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CARBON COPY RAIN EVENT
FROM MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THESE EVENTS...MANY
AREAS COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

COUPLE OF ISSUES WITH POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF MVFR CIGS WHICH MODELS
PROJECT LIFTING OVER THE EASTERN AREA 14Z-19Z. TRIED TO TIME SOME
BKN035 INTO THAT REGION THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THIS WILL DISSIPATE
SOME/MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
THEN DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUN.
THIS WILL CONTINUE OR EVEN LOWER TO IFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
-SHRA/TS THREAT WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY TO THE NE AS FRONT
INTENSIFIES. TRIED TO TIME SOME -SHRA OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...AGAIN 06Z-10Z SUN PERIOD. THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TOO SCT
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY SE-S WINDS DEVELOPING INTO
MAINLY MN PORTION AND WIND BECOME MORE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO SUNDAY.

KMSP...NO CHANGE FROM THE MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NITE...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHRA/TS. WIND ESE 10-15KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHRA. WIND NE 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS E 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE



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