Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 210955
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
355 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Increased pops to 90 percent ahead of the upper level PV anomaly
that is producing the rain across Iowa. HiRes models are in good
agreement in lifting that area of precip across eastern Minnesota
into western Wisconsin. Elsewhere continue to have chance pops with
drizzle mention.

Should see low clouds and fog through Sunday morning. Forecast
soundings keep the low level moisture in place and have no reason to
expect anything other than overcast skies. Winds will be light as
well which will limit the clearing potential from mechanical mixing.
Min and Max temperatures will only range about 5 degrees, but remain
well above the seasonal average for late January.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Sunday and Monday, will still in all liklihood be cloudy with
some light fog/mist. These days, however, should be free from
precipitation with the shortwave having moved well north of the
area and a surface high building in from the west. After Looking
at the forecast soundings and the amount of saturation, Monday
afternoon is our best hope for seeing a little sunshine. That
window quickly shuts on Tuesday with the advance of a deep trough
from the west and a surface low that will track across Iowa,
perhaps northern Missouri. The 00/06z model runs this evening are
a little farther south than yesterday`s runs. The FGEN between
850-600mb is present and solid across the southern half of MN and
in western WI - there also remains good upper support from a
strong Polar Jet. The axis of heaviest QPF is across northern IA
(at this point), but light snow would stretch all the way to
central MN given the amount of large-scale ascent with this
system. If the track remains roughly the same, most of the
forecast area (southern half of MN and west central WI) would be
in the 2-6" snowfall range - with the heaviest down near the MN/IA
border. A northern shift would ensure a bit more snow for the
local area and ensure that nearly all of the forecast area would
get at least some snow, but a southward shift would really reduce
the amount of snow in MN and central WI. Cooler temperatures will
follow the TUE-WED system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Very moist low level conditions due to snow melt along with
southerly flow ahead of an incoming low pressure system will
combine to keep ceilings AOB 005 through the period. Visibilities
overnight will likely fluctuate between a 1/2sm and 2 1/2sm. KEAU
is the last holdout, but will be deteriorating soon. A steady
light rain will push northward across the area Saturday morning.
This should help to increase visibilities into the 1-3sm range.
However, visibilities will likely drop Saturday evening with
little wind over the area along with an abundance of low level
saturation. Widespread visibilities of a 1/4 to 1/2sm possible.

KMSP...Confidence is high on ceilings staying AOB 005 overnight
and Saturday. However, visibilities are going to meander around
with anything from 1/2sm to 2 1/2sm. Visibilities should stabilize
in the 2-3sm range Saturday morning as rain moves through with
even some 3-4sm in the afternoon. However, Saturday night will
likely see a return of visibilities below 2sm.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR likely. Slight chance -RA/-SN. Winds NW 5 kts.
MON...MVFR likely. Winds NW 5 kts.
TUE...MVFR likely. IFR with SN aftn/night. Winds NE 5 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ041>044-
     048>051-054>059-064>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH


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