Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 162327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Two disturbances will be impacting our weather for the next 24
hours. The first, now over South Dakota will continue on its
east-southeast trajectory, tracking across southern Minnesota and
Iowa this evening. Extensive cloudiness across western Minnesota
has limited the degree of destabilization this afternoon, but
MLCAPE has recently increased to 1000-2000 J/kg across Iowa extending
up into southern Minnesota. As the vort max rotates eastward late
this afternoon toward this destabilizing airmass, expecting
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, a few of which may
be severe south of a line from Fairmont to Eau Claire. This
activity will shift east of the CWA by mid evening.

After a break overnight into Saturday morning, a stronger trough
will rotate eastward to Minnesota during peak heating mid
afternoon. This wave, in combination with a moist and modestly
unstable airmass should get numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms to develop. A couple stronger cells are possible,
but the low CAPE/shear profiles should limit this potential
significantly. Instead, relatively brief heavy rainfall rates are
the biggest issue. Increased PoPs to categorical across many areas
west of I-35 and likely east. Widespread cloud cover and rain by
afternoon will keep highs in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

The medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement on the overall
evolution of the large scale upper air pattern over the upcoming
week. The shortwave trough impacting the region tomorrow and
tomorrow night will work to carve out a larger scale trough over the
eastern part of the CONUS, which will put help put us in northwest
flow with ridging over the western CONUS. This looks to break down
some by the middle of the week, with fairly zonal flow for the
second half of the week. We`ll have some showers/thunderstorms
lingering into tomorrow night as a surface low lifts northeast from
Iowa into the Upper Great Lakes. Some showers, mainly diurnally
driven given the cold pool aloft, can be expected on Sunday. A few
could manage to produce lightning, mainly across the northeast
forecast area where mid-level temperatures look coolest, and across
the southwest where better boundary layer moisture will be present.
A shortwave trough looks to drop southeast with the upper flow and
pass through the region late Monday into Tuesday, so should see some
showers and a few thunderstorms with that. In addition, the
baroclinic zone to our southwest will periodically work to generate
some showers and thunder during that period. A more predominantly
dry period looks to occur later Tuesday into Wednesday as a decent
surface ridge takes hold over the area. However, return flow and
warm advection Wednesday should help generate showers/thunderstorms
as we see the 850 mb theta-e ridge work into the area. After that,
with the flow becoming more zonal, the guidance diverges a bit more
in terms of the forecast details. Overall, it looks to be more of a
typical summertime pattern, so will need to mention at least some
PoPs for most of the period from late Wednesday into Friday until
timing and placement of features can be hammered out better.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 625 CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

The main concern thru 6z is ongoing convection from west central
Wisconsin, southwest toward the Minnesota/Iowa border near Albert
Lea. Although most of the activity has been worked over in the
past few hours, there still remains enough instability for areas
south of KMKT - KEAU for a few hours of convection before most die
off this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
overnight with some fog possible in low lying areas, especially in
south central Minnesota where precipitation was heaviest.
Tomorrow will start dry until 15-18z as a storm system moves
eastward across the Northern Plains. SHRA with embedded TSRA will
likely develop in western Minnesota and spread eastward during the
afternoon. Timing and areal extent remains questionable, so just
introduced SHRA with VCTS.


Main convection will stay east/southeast of KMSP this evening.
More SHRA and thunderstorms will occur in the area Saturday
afternoon, into the early evening. Coverage remains questionable
so will keep things simple with SHRA/VCTS. Some lower cigs will
be possible toward the end of the taf period.


Sun...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Mon/Tue...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.




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