Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 242111 CCA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
411 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Typical March weather underway here with all the summer
temperatures to the southeast. Stratus and northerly flow have
kept temps only in the 30s and 40s, but Chicago managed to reach
the low 80s south of the front. Drier air will work into western
MN this evening and clouds should clear nicely, which is already
evident on satellite. The precip band has weakened and shifted
southeast but the upper low across the southern Plains will eject
northeastward to the Mid Mississippi Valley Saturday/Saturday
night which will bring the clouds and precip band back
northwestward. Amounts will be light and the precip should be
confined to southeast of a Fairmont to Eau Claire line through the
day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The weather pattern that we are currently in is difficult to
predict.  That the bottom line, so thought it best to temper
expectations and acknowledge that there will be little change in the
forecast and not anticipating any drastic uptick in confidence until
this highly amplified, split-flow pattern changes. The reason being,
amplified waves eventually end up breaking and getting cut off from
the main flow. Predicting a cut-off waves movement is difficult,
especially when there are multiple waves that interact with each
other.

Within these upper level lows are areas of enhanced vorticity which
end up producing precipitation. For example, on Saturday night
models indicate a band of light rain lifting northward, but the
positive vorticity advection is weak, the precip is light, and the
confidence in receiving measurable rainfall is low, so only have a
25 to 35 percent chance of rain through Sunday. On Monday a northern
stream wave will move through and subsidence on the back side will
bring an end to the precipitation chances, but forecast soundings
show residual boundary layer moisture, so should see increasing
clouds driven by daytime heating.

Tuesday will end up being the sunniest day of the forecast with
highs in the lower 50s expected. On Wednesday another occluded
cyclone over the southern plains will spread mid level moisture and
clouds over the Upper Midwest. Confidence tapers off considerably
after Wednesday, so continued with the blended guidance and slight
chances for precipitation. One thing is highly likely, and that
is the Month of March will once again be above normal at MSP and
STC, possibly at EAU as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

MVFR cigs will prevail for much of the period, clearing from west
to east overnight. The rain has ended except at EAU. North winds
will become more easterly Saturday.

KMSP...Should see cigs around FL017 for the next several hours
with some improvement possible by evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat Night...Chc MVFR -RA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Sun...Chc MVFR. Wind ENE 5 kts.
Mon...Chc MVFR Early. Wind N 5 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF


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