Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 131738 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1138 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Today and tonight...High pressure will be the overwhelming surface
feature through tonight, despite the passage of a weak low level
trough axis through the region this evening. Aloft, generally
northwest flow will continue although a low pressure center over
western Hudson Bay will have a trailing shortwave axis which will
move through the region this evening with the surface feature.
Moisture will be limited to the upper levels thus the only effects
will be a slight increase in cirrus clouds this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, low level winds shifting from southwest to
west today plus the lack of an incoming colder airmass with the
trough features and northwest flow aloft will mean another highly
abnormally warm day today. Highs today will hit some 15-20 degrees
above normal, coming awfully close to record highs, reaching the
lower 40s to lower 50s. Clouds will increase tonight as the
Canadian low drops towards the Great Lakes but any precipitation
will remain to the north of the WFO MPX coverage area. The
increased cloud ahead of this system will contribute to slightly
higher minimum temperatures tonight with lows ranging 25-30
degrees.

Today`s forecast highs and records for 2/13/17:
MSP: forecast high 48, record high 51 in 1890
STC: forecast high 45, record high 47 in 2011
EAU: forecast high 44, record high 47 in 1921 & 1918

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The main focus of the long term period is the very warm
temperatures forecast late in the week into the weekend. No
measurable precipitation is expected this week, with our next shot
coming Sunday/night-Monday.

By tomorrow morning, an upper trough will be digging south from
nearly due north as an associated surface low tracks across the
northern Great Lakes.  The combination of cold air and vorticity
advection within cyclonic flow, felt it was warranted to include a
slight chance for snow showers across western WI. No accumulation
is expected with this acitivity though. Tuesday night will be
cooler than we`ve seen in a while with lows falling into the
teens.

During the day Wednesday, the upper ridge will begin encroaching
on our area by the afternoon. Raised high temps across western
MN to account for this as we now expect low 40s to be feasible
there. The eastern end of the forecast area will be a good 15
degrees cooler, simply due to the ridge not arriving until Wed
night-Thursday.

The well-advertised warm up really comes Thursday through the
weekend. During this period, the amplified pattern will shift the
ridge over the center of the CONUS with troughs to the east and
west. The EC is indicating 850mb temps soar to +15C Friday
afternoon, incredible warmth for mid-February. Now, we won`t mix
nearly that deep, but it demonstrates just how warm this air mass
will be for the end of the week. Continued to advertise temps well
above the consensus guidance as this pattern and lack of snow
cover will allow us to reach the upper echelon of forecast
guidance for this period, possibly even higher. Widespread 50s are
likely for the weekend, and 60s look like a safe bet across parts
of southwestern MN.

Finally, the guidance continues to indicate a system developing
and lifting into the Dakotas by the end of the weekend, placing
our area well within the warm sector. Dewpoints look to rise
rapidly into the 40s at least Sunday night, so warmed overnight
lows into the low and mid 40s, quite remarkable for mid-February.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Occasional high clouds for the next 18 hours or so and VFR
conditions. A cold front will push through tonight and cold air
advection could bring lower clouds in for late Tuesday morning.
Models are not latching onto the lack of a significant snow cover
well at all, so believe the cloud bases are too low on the
guidance. Left cigs VFR for now, although will watch for trends
upstream.

KMSP...VFR expected for the period, but as discussed above there
is some potential for lower cigs Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE at 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S at 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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