Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 221039
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
539 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN CLEARING TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES
INTO TONIGHT.

SATELLITE SHOWING FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.  MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR TO
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH DURING THE MORNING WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.  CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...SO
MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR
HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE MID
30S IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. WE COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST THERE AND DID INCLUDE THAT MENTION LATE TONIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FROST
LEVELS...OR LOWER TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

THE FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE TWO LARGE SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BE HEADED EAST SATURDAY AS A COMPACT NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BLACK HILLS SATURDAY
NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING HIGHS BACK WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MN AND UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S OVER WRN WI SATURDAY. A FEW AREAS MAY HIT 80 OVER WRN MN. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE A FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE EAST OF THE LOW. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY AS A 50-60KT LLJ JET DEVELOPS
AND MOISTURE INCREASES ALOFT OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH IS
CREATING UNREALISTICALLY HIGH MUCAPE VALUES...BUT STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY THE FURTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO ACROSS MN.
DESPITE THE GOOD ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...FORCING IN THE AREAS WITH
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES IS LACKING AND THERE ARE DOUBTS ANYTHING WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT. IF A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS DO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN MN...THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
IS THERE. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT NORTH OF I-94 WHERE LIKELIES CONTINUE ON THE NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

BY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S SOUTH OF I-94...BUT
ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN AND NORTHERN WI.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL VORT APPROACHES AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES ACROSS SRN MN. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000
J/KG CANNOT BE RULED OUT UNDER CONTINUED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S. AGAIN...LARGE HAIL
AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRESENCE OF
30-45KT BULK SHEAR IN STRONGER STORMS.

SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY
BUT CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE NEXT
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL SEND ANOTHER CYCLONE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MIDWEEK. NORTHEAST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS ONE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM. IN FACT THE GFS IS SO COLD IT BRINGS A STRIPE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY
AT THIS JUNCTURE...BUT A WIDESPREAD COLD RAIN IS CERTAINLY
EXPECTED AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELIES GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

HOLES ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN NUMBER IN THE MVFR CIGS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE KAXN WILL BE THE ONLY STATION TO BE
FREE OF THEM AT 12Z. WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH
16Z-17Z OVER THE REST OF THE FA. THEN JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TONIGHT AND COULD LIFT BACK N-NW
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WILL MENTION SOME SCT025-035 LATE AT
KRWF-KMSP FOR NOW. NE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SE INTO TONIGHT.
THEY SHOULD REMAIN AOB 10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...
HOLE IN THE MVFR DECK DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH METRO THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR THROUGH 16Z OR SO...THEN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS BECOMING MORE E-SE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN AOB 10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NITE...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA PSBL IN THE EVE. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHRA/TS. WIND ESE 10-15KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHRA. WIND NE 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE



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