Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 192005
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE ADVANCING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE WEATHER
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD REMAINS QUITE COOL AND
THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
HELPED THE STRATO-CU LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH MOVING IN ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI...WE EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT GIVEN THE CALM WIND AND
COOL START TO THE EVENING. THE CAVEAT TONIGHT IS THE ADVANCING
CIRRUS SHIELD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH COULD TRAP IN SOME
OF THE HEAT ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WE THINK
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THIN ENOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID
30S. THERE REALLY ISN`T FAR TO GO GIVEN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING. AFTER A FROSTY MORNING...THERE WILL BE SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPS FROM WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY. THE WARM-UP TOMORROW WOULD
BE MORE PRONOUNCED IF NOT FOR THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY...TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES EVOLVE
AS CURRENTLY INDICATED BY THE MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE 19.12 GFS.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL ACTUALLY BE ADVOCATING WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY NEED FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES DESPITE THE
TYPICALLY COLD WIND DIRECTION. SEASONABLY DRY AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROFILES LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HOLD OFF THE PRECIPITATION DRIVEN
BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHERE
AREAS ALONG I-90 COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE VIA H925-H850 THETA_E ADVECTION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VEERING WINDS...BUT THE CAPE PROFILE IS MINIMAL SINCE
THE GFS GENERATES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WOULD BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH THE
FASTER GFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH TIMING
AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS...AND DIFFERENT
RUNS...WILL NOT REST ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MID MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

NOW THAT THE MVFR CEILINGS HAVE WORKED OUT OF THE TAF SITES. LOOK
FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN WI AND
SOUTHERN MN...BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. SOME PATCH FOG
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...BUT
WE WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

KMSP...
NO BIG AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
/AND BEYOND/. THE WIND COULD GO VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM
TONIGHT. LOW LYING PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS
OUTSIDE THE METRO...ITS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM AT KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NNW 5 TO 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NE 5 TO 10 KTS


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     049>053.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023-025-027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF



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