000
FXUS63 KMPX 120009
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT EXPECTED ALONG I-90 LATE TONIGHT. LOOKING
AT THE BIG PICTURE...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN
UTAH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN ON WED. AS OF THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS...THIS LOW WAS
INITIALIZED TOO WEAK...AND MAY AFFECT THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED. A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING IN NE COLORADO
WILL MOVE TO NEAR OMAHA BY 12Z WED WITH THE BULK OF TSTMS FORMING
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLACK HILLS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC LOW AND AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEVERE MCS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD LATER THIS EVENING. DRIVEN BY A 50KT MID-LEVEL JET,
THIS COMPLEX WILL SPEED ALONG I-90...ARRIVING INTO SW MN
~10Z...EXITING SE MN ABOUT 6 HRS LATER. ALTHOUGH HAIL AND HEAVY
RAIN ARE ALSO THREATS WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT...THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 60KTS. NUMEROUS LOCAL/MESO-
SCALE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS COMPLEX SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH. PLEASE
REFER TO SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE SPECIFICS ON THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION AS WELL AS PRODUCTS FROM THIS OFFICE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ONCE THE SEVERE MCS PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST...THE UPPER LOW STILL HAS
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO DE-STABILIZATION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE
SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MINNESOTA INTO THE AFTN HRS. ADDITIONAL T-STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE INTENSITY WILL BE NOTHING IN
COMPARISON TO EARLIER IN THE DAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF -SHRA FROM ND/SD BORDER
STRETCHING TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HRS AS A 80-90KT JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MN. A FEW
TSTMS HAVE BEEN NOTED RECENTLY IN FAR WEST CENTRAL MN...AND THIS
TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET OR A LITTLE AFTER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

THE LONG TERM FEATURES ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS AN
ENERGETIC WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
SEASONAL NORMAL AND RUN IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS WILL
BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S PROJECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THURSDAY MAY BE
THE NICEST DAY OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN MN DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WET PERIOD IS THEN
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE FA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE CONTINUITY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS REALLY GOOD WITH A
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN FORECAST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COME BACK SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPS IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD
IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS
WOULD FINALLY BOOST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IF THE PATTERN MATERIALIZES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

STILL A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS SHOULD WANE WITH TIME...BUT INCLUDE VCSH AT A FEW TAF SITES.
LEFT THUNDER OUT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS ARE FALLING OUT OF CLOUD BASES BETWEEN
7000-10000 FT AND ARE LIGHT...SO VIS/CIGS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM
THIS EVENING. WE ARE STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEALTHY
BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OUT OF NE/SD AND TRACK ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW MORNING...WE PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL
TIME GIVEN HOW SLOW THINGS ARE EVOLVING TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONG WINDS NEAR KRWF IN THE
EARLY MORNING...BUT THE WORST OF THE WEATHER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES...NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KMSP...

THE BAD NEWS IS...WE STILL HAVE UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHEN A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF SD/NE TONIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. WE ARE ALSO UNSURE OF EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE
STORMS WILL TRACK. THE GOOD NEWS IS...WE ARE GETTING MORE
CONFIDENT THAT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
AND CLOSER TO THE MN/IA BORDER. WHILE THE 5 MILE RADIUS AROUND THE
AIRPORT LOOKS TO BE IN THE CLEAR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...CAN
ENVISION A LOT OF FLIGHT DEVIATIONS AROUND THE COMPLEX OF STORMS
/WHICH COULD BE EXTENSIVE/ TO OUR SOUTH. WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON CLOSER TO KMSP...BEHIND THE INITIAL
LINE OF STORMS TO THE SOUTH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. NW WIND 5KTS...VEERING E.
FRI...VFR. SE WIND 10-20KTS.
FRI NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE. TSRA POSSIBLE. S-SE 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF