Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 281957
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
257 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE RELATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SO
FAR THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUITE
MODEST...WITH THE LEADING FRONTOGENSIS AND PV ADVECTION RATHER
MEAGER AND LIFTING OUT IN PIECES. FURTHERMORE...ONE HAS TO GO SOUTH
WELL INTO IOWA CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT BEFORE FINDING ANY HINT OF
THUNDER. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...AND
EXPECT MORE OF A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE SITUATION WITH STRATUS
CLOUDS TO BETTER DESCRIBE THIS EVENINGS WEATHER...AT LEAST UNTIL
AROUND/AFTER 06Z FRIDAY WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY VALUES WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY WET DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD
AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MN. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY
POPS /60-70 PERCENT/ ALONG/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...WITH CHANCE POPS /30-50 PERCENT/ TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL CULPRIT SHIFTS EAST. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENT
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACNW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY DYNAMIC AS IT IS AIDED BY THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET WHILE DRAWING UP SOME GULF MOISTURE. -SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE SAT...WHILE MN
GETS JUICED UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT (IN TERMS INCREASING LL
MOISTURE). ONLY ADDING TO THE TSTM SET-UP WILL BE 40-50KT OF BULK
SHEAR (0-6KM) AND A COUPLE THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE BY SUN AFTN.
SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN
THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK...AND BESIDES THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL THREAT THROUGH THE AFTN/EVE HRS ON SUN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON MON WITH ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. TYPICALLY
THIS MEANS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO SPECIFIC PERIODS OF RAIN TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CIG/VSBY DEGRADATION TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY
WILL LAG PRECIPITATION ONSET AT SITES BY A FEW HOURS. EXPECT TO
SEE NOTABLE CIG REDUCTION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH PREVALENT IFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR VSBYS. LOW
CLOUDS LINGER ON FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN SITES /KMSP-KRNH-
KEAU/. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 7-14KTS TODAY VEER TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

KMSP... PRECIP SHOULD SNEAK INTO KMSP BETWEEN 19Z AND
20Z...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT AND THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS LOW. CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR THIS EVE THEN IFR BY 06Z.
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA EARLY. WINDS W 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JCA
AVIATION...LS






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