Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 060458 AAC
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AS CONFIDENCE OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF MN. A BAND OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN SODAK NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD HAS
PRODUCED MORE THAN 2 INCHES NEAR MORRIS LAST HOUR...AND IT IS
STILL RAINING VERY HEAVILY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW THE QLCS
WILL EVOLVE AND WHETHER IT WILL DEVELOP A COLD POOL. GIVEN IT/S
RELATIVE NARROW NATURE AT LEAST AT THE PRESENT TIME...NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR
MAINTAINING SLOW MOVING STORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
IS INCREASING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE INCREASING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LLJ OVERNIGHT...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MN. HOPWRF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 3
INCHES IS OVER 90 PERCENT IN THAT AREA...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTHEAST UP THE LINE TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AS
WELL.

BOTTOM LINE...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR SOME AREAS EXCEEDING 3
INCHES AND LOW TO MEDIUM FOR 5 TO 7 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CORES. A LARGER...ALBEIT LIGHTER AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS LINE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AS WINDS BECOME NORTH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE RAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KMSP...SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN AROUND 06Z WITH THE HEAVIEST ARRIVING
BETWEEN 07-10Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ047>070-
     073>077-082>084-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF


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