Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 110021
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
621 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The short term concern remains strength and timing of short wave
across the area later tonight/Monday and overall threat of mixed
precipitation.

Water vapor imagery showing rather vigorous short wave moving
through Saskatchewan and extending into eastern Montana. This wave
is still progged to generate lift into the northwest cwa this
evening. Mid level warmer air is working across the eastern
Dakotas and will move into western MN during the evening. There is
some threat of light freezing rain or drizzle into the west
mainly through about midnight, but models continue to trend deeper
moisture east, mainly along and east of I-94 overnight. It appear
if we do lose ice aloft, we could see a period of light freezing
precipitation into central MN toward the Twin Cities through 06z
and the roughly 06z-12z into east to south central MN after that.
At the moment we have some slight chance freezing drizzle
mentioned.

For snow...still looks like a general 1 to 3 inch snow with the
higher accumulations mainly along and northeast of I-94. This
still may shift some if the wave comes in stronger and slower. The
surface low tracks over the Central MN into western WI. Any
deviation in the track of the low farther east will give rise to
better chance for mixed precipitation into east central MN. Will
have to monitor these trends this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Drying treed into Monday giving cooler temperatures through
Wednesday. The next wave arrives later Wednesday lingering into
Thursday. Possibly enough warm air moving in across the Dakotas to
generate some mixed precipitation.

The pattern does continue to appear to be changing some with more
of a Pacific flow moving across the northern tier of the country
into the weekend. This may provide an above normal temperature
trend at least for the first part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Satellite shows a very strong wave up over Saskatchewan that will
be heading through the Twin Cities early Monday morning. Main
precip band with this is still expected to fall northeast of the
surface/upper low track. Expecting band of heaviest snow, with
2-4" amounts to fall from Hallock in NW MN to Rhinelander in
northern WI, or north of the MPX terminals. CIG/VIS trends in TAFs
are basically a blend of the LAV and HRRR, with the expectation of
a brief 2-4 hour window of snow for MSP on east this evening.
Monday morning, a strong arctic cold front will surge south.
Beside gusty NW winds, this will also bring another brief window
for snow showers in the strongest CAA immediately behind the
front. Was a bit more conservative with cig heights than the
HRRR/LAV behind the front, keeping mostly MVFR heights, though we
could see some IFR cigs for a bit behind the front.

KMSP...Still looks like MSP gets clipped by a quick hit of snow
around 6z. Not anticipating any FZDZ tonight. However, there is
potential for some ra/frza Monday morning as the upper low is
moving overhead, as steep mid level lapse rates may allow for
convection to form. The NAMnest is probably the model hitting this
potential the hardest.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Wed...MVFR with chc -SN. Wind SE 5 kts mrng, NW aftn 10-15 kts.
Thu...Chc MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG



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