Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 311715
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME SPOTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF COOLING LEFT. THIS IS LIKELY WHERE THE
FROST WILL BE CONFINED THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
IS IN THE 40S WITH EAST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH...THUS NO POSSIBILITY OF
FROST THERE.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EVAPORATE MUCH...OR ALL OF
THE RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER 925 MB TEMPS TODAY...CLOUDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH THAT FROST WON/T BE A PROBLEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE DOMINATE THEME FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE RETURN OF
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
THREAT FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FIRST CHANGE NOTED THIS EVENING FROM THE MODELS WAS THAT THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
LINGER A BIT LONGER. THIS RESULTED IN LESS CLOUD COVER AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DRY SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP
DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FOR POPS...COULD PROBABLY GO DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY LOOKING TO STAY PRIMARILY OVER NODAK...THOUGH LEFT A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW CWA AFTER 21Z TUESDAY IN CASE ANYTHING
THAT DEVELOPS IN NODAK GETS HERE A BIT FASTER. IN ADDITION...DELAYED
THE EWRD PROGRESSION OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WE ENTER OUR MORE ACTIVE PATTERN...BUT HARD TO SAY
HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET.  FIRST...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE WE HAVE AT LEAST MODEST FORCING IN THE FORM OF A LLJ OVERHEAD
FOR SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN
BETWEEN...THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL WASH
OUT OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY...WHILE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL FEATURE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA FROM A HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA. ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WE WILL HAVE H85 AND H7 RIDGING OVERHEAD...SO
WE DON`T LOOK TO GET MUCH HELP FROM ANY LLJ OR WAA FORCING.
INSTEAD...BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE A MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF
MULTI-CELL CLUSTER TYPE STORMS EACH DAY...THOUGH IT/S PRETTY HARD AT
THIS POINT TO PIN DOWN WHEN/WHERE ANY OF THOSE WOULD OCCUR...SO
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS AREA WIDE. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR SW SAID BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAKES IT...WE MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A MAINLY DRY DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME...PWATS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
1.4 INCHES...WHICH WOULD PUT US AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY JUNE PWATS...SO ANY ACTIVITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR...THOUGH SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE/MULTI-CELL STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ANY
OF THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH PERIOD. MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS REGION INTO TONIGHT. ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINMKLE POSSIBLE FAR
WEST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS
TODAY INCREASING OVER MAINLY THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
VFR DURING PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NITE...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KT.
WED...VFR. CHANCE -TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE


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