Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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032
FXUS63 KMPX 221813
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
113 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Little concern in the short term. Cooler and drier air moving in
for the period.

Satellite imagery showing cloud cover with last vestiges of the
upper trough exiting the far eastern area this morning. We expect
this trend to continue with perhaps a few cumulus redeveloping to the
far east into the early afternoon. Lower level CAA...a bit stronger
to the east...and some pressure gradient should help increase winds
in the 10 to 15kt with gusts to 22kts through much of the
afternoon...especially to the east.

Winds should die off quickly this evening with cool high pressure
continuing to build east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

The long term period brings continued cool weather as a mid/upper
trough dominates the eastern half of the CONUS. Other than a small
chance for fleeting light showers on Wednesday, we will be dry
until the weekend with surface high pressure in place.

Highs will be 5-10 degrees below normal on Wednesday and Thursday
with readings ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Lows will even
dip into the mid 40s across the northeast part of the forecast
area (Lake Mille Lacs to west central WI). Weak shortwave energy
in the base of the aforementioned eastern trough could be healthy
enough to generate some light showers on Wednesday and Wednesday
evening, and then more formidable activity arrives on Friday night
as a surface trough/front arrive in conjunction with a shortwave
trough from the west. The setup doesn`t look particularly
threatening as far as severe weather is concerned (given only
moderate instability), but heavy rains could be a factor given
PWATS circa 1.5 inches under prolonged forcing over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

VFR conditions throughout. Northwest winds will gust around 20 kts
this afternoon, but decrease around sunset. Expect light winds
overnight and into Wednesday. A quick moving system will bring a
few showers down from the northwest across the region Wednesday
afternoon, but this is past the time frame of the 24 hr TAF.

KMSP...

VFR conditions throughout. Could see some scattered showers
moving close to MSP by 22-24Z, but confidence at this time is too
low to include mention in the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind SE at 10 kts.
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind SE at 10 kts.
Sat...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind S at 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB



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