Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 310355
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1055 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS FROST POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA.

LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR OVER THE FAR EAST. AS UPPER TROUGH SHEARS
OFF TO THE EAST...WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH RAPID CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET. THEN WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP
OFF TO THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF I94 IN WISCONSIN AND INTO CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL PROMOTE SOME
AREAS OF FROST AND WILL HEADLINE THIS POTENTIAL WITH AN ADVISORY
FOR THOSE AREAS WHERE GARDENS ARE PLANTED AND GROWING SEASON IS
WELL UNDERWAY.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE...NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA...MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS AND A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST CWA.
ATMOSPHERE IS DRY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...SO
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE MEASURABLE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. COULD HAVE A FEW FROST
CONCERNS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AGAIN...BUT PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN UP NEAR LADYSMITH. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON
MONDAY...BUT STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WANES FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...WITH RESPECT TO DETAILS SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF A
TROUGH THAT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER
WEST/CENTRAL MN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BLOSSOMS AND
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WHETHER REDEVELOPMENT
OCCURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM RESIDUAL CLOUDS/STABILITY
FROM NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MAY LAY UP IN OUR AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT...KEPT
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT TO VEER TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF
DISTURBANCE RACING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARD IOWA. ANY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO FAR SW MN...AND NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT ANY OF THE WFO MPX TERMINALS.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...AND BECOME EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING. NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AND CEILINGS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 10K FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KT.
WED...VFR. CHANCE -TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ042>045-049>053-061-
     063.

WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023-025-027-
     028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC


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