Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 030012
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MN...WITH
ENE-ESE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISC TO CANBY MN. STORMS
THIS MORNING HELPED SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WISC...NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAS BEEN AWASH
IN CLOUDINESS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. BUT UPPER 80S
HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST MN. CLOUD COVER
NOW IS DISSIPATING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MASS
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE WISCONSIN STORMS.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH
SURFACE HIGH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...E-SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINING
AFTER THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT
PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THEREFORE THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE FRONT TOMORROW. SOME
ESSENTIALLY WASH IT OUT WHILE OTHERS KEEP A WEAK FRONT AND MOVE IT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA... THERE
WILL BE LESS UPLIFT THAN TODAY...SO MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER FROM CENTRAL MN TO WISC THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL MN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AND THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN...
WITH DEW POINTS OFTEN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND IS SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD. WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS MID 70 READINGS FROM LITCHFIELD
TO GLENCOE AND SOUTH. WHILE THIS POOLING IS LIKELY DUE TO A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THINK MODELS STILL DON`T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID RAISE THEM A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW-MID 70S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES ARE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PLACES DESPITE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH
UNLIKELY...IF TEMPS CAN WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST...HEAT
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AND CONVECTION AS DISCUSSED BELOW COULD
SEND CLOUD DEBRIS OVERHEAD KEEPING HIGHS COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEGIN STRETCHING AND SHEARING OUT
BEFORE MAKING ANY MEANINGFUL ATTEMPT TO AFFECT WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT ABOUT 850 MB AND WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL FIRE. CHANCES DO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MN
AS THE TAIL END OF THE VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST. INCREASING 850 MB
JET WILL ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER VORT WILL APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CAPPING COULD PUT A LID ON MOST ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH QPF. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT TO FOCUS MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN.

BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN PIECES. AS A
RESULT...THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS IT DID
YESTERDAY THANKS TO A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS
IT IN QUITE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
MON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

ALSO DIFFERENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MORE ZONAL LOOK TO
THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SYSTEM...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TD FOURTEEN-E IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS AREA WIDE DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AFTER A MORNING FILLED WITH RAIN IN MINNESOTA AND AN AFTERNOON
FILLED WITH RAIN IN WISCONSIN...THE TABLES ARE AGAIN SET FOR FOG
AND LOW STRATUS. THERE HAS BEEN AN AIR MASS CHANGE AND WE`VE HAD
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WI SEEMS THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AS THE RAIN CAME LATE TODAY AND THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR LOWER WIND SPEEDS...BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME MENTION FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN MN AS WELL.

KMSP...

GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND THE RAIN THAT FELL
EARLIER TODAY...WE THINK THERE IS AGAIN A GOOD CHANCE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG COME TOMORROW MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT WHERE THE FOG/CLOUDS DEVELOP. IT`S POSSIBLE
THE LOW CLOUDS HANG OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO...BUT
GIVEN THE TRENDS IT IS BETTER TO PLAN ON VISIBILITY AND CEILING
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S AT 10G20KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WIND S AT
10G20KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF



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