Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 221724
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

QUITE THE BATTLE GOING ON ACROSS THE MPX AREA THIS MORNING BETWEEN
STRATUS TO THE NORTH...CIRRUS IN THE SOUTH...AND DENSE FOG WHICH CAN
BE FOUND IN BETWEEN. SFC ANALYSIS AT 3 AM SHOWED THE SOMEWHAT
DIFFUSE SFC LOW THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES THURSDAY EVENING
WAS CENTERED NEAR MENOMONIE...WI. STRATUS THAT REMAINED IN PLACE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT YESTERDAY IS STILL THERE THIS MORNING AND
HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE SFC LOW INTO THE TWIN CITIES.
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS...DENSE FOG IS THE ISSUE UNTIL
YOU HIT A CIRRUS SHIELD IN SOUTHERN MN ORIGINATING FROM IOWA
CONVECTION. JUST EXPANDED THE INITIAL ADVISORY EAST TOWARD OWATONNA
AND FARIBAULT...AND THINKING THAT SHOULD BE ALL THE MORE EXPANSION
NEEDED AS THE CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VSBYS UP ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR...WHILE LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SCENE
NORTHEAST OF THE DENSE FOG ADVY.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE SFC LOW WILL DRIFT TOWARD
MILWAUKEE...WITH THE MPX AREA GETTING INTO SOME SFC RIDGING AND
DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW. BESIDE THE DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW...WE
WILL HAVE SLOWLY BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO ALTHOUGH
WE WILL NOT BE KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT OF HERE...WITH DEWPS STILL
STAYING IN THE UPPER 60/LOWER 70S...THE COMBINATION OF THE DIFFLUENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING TODAY A DRY...THOUGH MUGGY DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING INTO IOWA WILL MAKE IT
DOWN INTO SRN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN SURGING NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
SURGING NORTH FAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE MPX CWA OVERNIGHT...SO CUT
BACK POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR TONIGHT...LEAVING SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS
IN FOR AFTER 9Z SW OF THE MN RIVER. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW THE
925-850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMING NORTH INTO WRN IOWA...THEN BACKING
HARD TO THE WEST...GOING TOWARD ERN MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE CO/NE/KS BORDER. THE ONE
MODEL THAT STICKS OUT AS AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT IS THE GFS...WHICH
HAS THE SFC LOW BY 12Z SAT WAY OUT NEAR YANKTON AS OPPOSED TO THE
CO/NE/KS BORDER REGION...SO THIS FORECAST LEANED MUCH MORE TOWARD A
NON-GFS CONSENSUS FOR POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS STILL FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS
ENERGY EJECTS PERIODICALLY FROM THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES. CONCERN WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A
STRONG CONNECTION TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ITS SEVERAL TROPICAL
CYCLONES.

THE MOST POTENT SYSTEM OF THE LONG TERM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE MUCH LIKE THAT OF
AN AUTUMN-LIKE CYCLONE WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR AND VERY
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
LOW TRACK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST...ALIGNING WITH
THE MINNESOTA RIVER SATURDAY...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SECONDARY
BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT...VEERING SOUTHWEST IN THE
MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
WITH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE. STORM COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS FORCING BECOMES LESS AND LESS
INFLUENTIAL. DECREASED POPS TO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR THESE AREAS.

AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH AND A SSERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECTING TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO WRN MN.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN WITH ANY TRAINING
CELLS. RAINFALL LIKELIHOOD DIMINISHES AGAIN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
WITH CAPPING AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR. REDUCED POPS AGAIN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ON SUNDAY EAST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE. GFS SEEMS TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND THUS THE WARM
SECTOR AND THERMAL RIDGING ARE SHUNTED MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN ALL
THE OTHER MODELS. THE NAM...GEM...AND ECMWF ALL HAVE THE THERMAL
RIDGE OVER ERN MN AND WRN MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT DIFFER ON
INTENSITY. TOSSED OUT THE MUCH TOO HOT NAM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD
INDICATE HIGHS NEAR 100F ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. SEEMS A
BIT UNLIKELY WITH A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE...THE ECMWF IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THE GEM CLOSE BEHIND. SHOULD BE A VERY
WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HEAT INDICES FLIRTING NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS AGAIN.

THE FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY
MAKES A MORE MEANINGFUL PUSH EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE
FRONT DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY GOOD WITH THE PARENT SYSTEM WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO
POP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS IN THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS FRONT SAGS. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEVELOP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SW-NE ORIENTED FRONT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO MENTION MEDIUM RANGE POPS...
HIGHEST SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE TOO
WARM IF WE DO SEE AN ALL DAY RAIN SCENARIO SET UP...IN WHICH CASE WE
MAY ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW/BLO 2500 FEET REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BEFORE NOON. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME VFR ELSEWHERE. NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT
THE SOUTHWEST AREAS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THIS
MAY LIMIT SIG FOG FORMATION TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL CONTINUE
IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA.
WILL MENTION VCSH AFTER 14Z AT KAXN/KRWF WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
LEFT DRY THROUGH 18Z ST. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA
BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAY SAT AND INCREASING TO 10KTS.

KMSP...
EXPECT VFR CONDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH 21Z AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS
MAY BE LIMITED BY ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE AREA ADVECTING SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS TREND. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH 16Z SAT
AND VFR THROUGH 18Z. SOME THREAT OF -SHRA INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
TOO LIMITED TO MENTION NOW. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. CHC TSRA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WINDS S10G20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE






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