000
FXUS63 KMPX 211239
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
739 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN /NEARLY
STATIONARY/ ACROSS EASTERN SD. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS...THE SMALL 500 M HEIGHT FALLS YESTERDAY ACTUALLY HELPED
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW BY 2-3 MB AND PERHAPS EVEN TIGHTEN UP THE
CIRCULATION AND CORRESPONDING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR FOCUSING THE VIOLENT WEATHER
IN THE STATES TO OUR SOUTH. BUT EVEN THIS MORNING THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI IS THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE SAME AREAS. THERE IS NICE
MID LEVEL DRYING STRETCHING FROM THE MN/WI BORDER ALL THE WAY
SOUTH INTO KS AND OK. THIS DRYING WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MN AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI DRY AT LEAST DURING
THE MORNING. CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CENTRAL MN
/ESPECIALLY WEST CENTRAL/ THERE SHOULD BE LIGHT STRATIFORM TYPE
PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. HOWEVER...PROBABLY NOT A WISE MOVE TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS IN THE WARM QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN...BECAUSE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
GIVEN DECENT BL MOISTURE TO POP SOME CU AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT THUNDER CHANCE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS IN
EASTERN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TODAY. AVAILABLE SHORT-RANGE WRF
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HOP-WRF /AT HOPWRF.INFO/ SUPPORT THIS.

OVERALL...THE LOW FILLS AND DRIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH TIME TONIGHT.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT TO WARRANT POP MENTION EVEN WITH THE
WEAKENING TREND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP. JUST PULL UP A
RADAR MOSAIC AND LOOK AT THE RADARS TO OUR NORTH
/KABR/KFGF/KDLH...THOSE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW AND WHEN THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...THOSE SHOWERS WILL COME ALONG WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

CLOUDY...COOL...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE ON TAP WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW STILL TAKING ITS TIME
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REALLY THINK BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SHOVED FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT WE
SHOULD JUST BE DEALING WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS AND NO THUNDER. WE
ARE DRY BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. WENT JUST A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.
THE GUIDANCE TRENDED THAT WAY...BUT SIMPLY THINK IT IS MORE TO DO
WITH SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COOL FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER 30S ARE
CERTAINLY WITHIN REASON ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WITH
THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT AND THAT HIGH MOVING IN.

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH WEST/EAST COASTS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND A
CLOSED ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SFC LOW/WARM FRONT
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FOCUS PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MID-UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS INDICATED IN
THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND GFS RUNS. THERE ARE A LOT OF
POPS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO REMOVE THEM...EVEN
GIVEN WE HAVE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HERE`S WHY ITS DIFFICULT TO REMOVE POPS. CLIMATOLOGY IS
RIGHT AROUND 25% FOR A 24 POP FORECAST THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
21.00Z GFS HAS A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW HERE AND THE 21.00Z ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN QUASI ZONAL. BOTH OF THESE PATTERNS WOULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND WOULD CERTAINLY WARRANT KEEPING POPS AT LEAST AT THE
MUTED/AVERAGED VALUES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SEVERAL COMPLICATIONS WITH THIS TAF SET DUE TO A WOBBLING WMFNT
OVER CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI...INCLUDING OVER NEARLY ALL TAF SITES.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS...CLOUD HEIGHTS AND
TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION. AS THE FNT LIFTS N...MAINLY N THRU
KRWF-KMSP-KRNH-EAU...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM E TO SW OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS THE CDFNT LINGERS OVER WRN MN. N OF THE
WMFNT...KAXN-KSTC WILL LIKELY REMAIN NE THRU THE DAY. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN MOST SITES REPORTING LOW-END MVFR TO IFR. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
GENERALLY BE A LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS TDA...CIGS WILL MAINLY
REMAIN WITHIN MVFR TO LOW-END VFR. SCALED BACK THE PRECIP DUE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND THE MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF PRECIP
RATHER THAN A SOLID RAIN SHIELD. THAT SAID...THERE STILL MAY BE
SOME ISOLD POCKETS OF MOD-HVY RAIN THAT COULD IMPACT VSBY
INCLUDING TSTMS. PRECIP CHCS REMAIN GENERALLY 30-60 PERCENT THRU
THE DAY...LOWERING THIS EVENING INTO TNGT THEN LOW STRATUS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...ASIDE FROM PATCHY SHWRS THIS MRNG WHICH ARE NOT XPCTD TO
DEGRADE VSBY...WILL KEEP MSP DRY THRU THE NEXT 30 HRS. STILL MAY
SEE SOME PASSING SHWRS DURING THIS TIME BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD
DROP VSBY BELOW 6SM. WILL LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO RISE ABOVE 3 KFT
MIDDAY TDA BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN THIS EVENING THRU TNGT. GOOD
CHC THAT CIGS WILL DROP BELOW THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD OVERNIGHT TNGT
AND REMAIN THERE THRU THE WED MRNG PUSH AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER WRN MN SHIFTS INTO WI. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE
WOBBLING FRONT OVERHEAD FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM E TO SW BY AROUND NOON...BUT THE TIMING IS
PROBLEMATIC TO PIN DOWN AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 7 KT
SO HAVE USED VRB05 THRU THE MRNG TO GET TO THE EARLY AFTN WIND
SHIFT. WINDS DROP TO VRB AGAIN TNGT BEFORE PICKING UP TO NLY BY
DAYBREAK TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -SHRA LIKELY. WINDS NE AT 5G10KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNE AT 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE AT 5-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC