Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 252216
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
416 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE QPF FROM THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS TODAY ON HOW FAR EAST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW (3+") WILL GO ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE H7 LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL BASICALLY PASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN LATE TONIGHT...A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MN DURING THIS SAME TIME. THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE MUCH MORE
QPF SPREADING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE...WHICH IF TRUE...WOULD RESULT IN MUCH MORE SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WHICH IS
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE MORE SEPARATION
IN THE QPF...WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FOCUSED FROM WEST CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ITS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PAST FIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE
SHOWN THE MID LEVEL LOW SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH TIME WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.
THE 15Z SREF IS BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THIS IDEA...SHOWING THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (60-80 PERCENT) FOR GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES
OF QPF IN 12 HOURS FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A FINGER OF HIGHER
PROBABILITIES POINTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST TWIN CITIES METRO.
HENCE...WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHEST FOR 3+ INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
WITH SOME HINT THAT THE HEAVIER SNOW COULD GET A LITTLE MORE TO
THE EAST...THE ADVISORY REACHES ACROSS MCLEOD AND SIBLEY COUNTIES.
KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHFIELD TO
ALBERT LEA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE SNOW WILL LINGER.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS
TRYING TO DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WAA INCREASES. WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW
COVER. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE WEST WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES THE PUSH PULL WEATHER PATTERN WITH BRIEF
WARM UP/COOL DOWNS. THE INITIAL WAVE EXITS EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN WITH WAA DRIVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A GENERAL 2-3 INCH SNOW IS LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94.  THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA.  DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD WARM THROUGH THE
30S AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
MODEL TIMING ISSUES...WITH THE GFS FASTER WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
WILL MOVE TOWARDS A SLOWER AND WARMER SOLUTION FOR NOW...WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. BETTER FORCING AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION...IF IT DOES DEVELOP..COULD BE IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.  THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL
IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRIVE HOLIDAY TRAVEL FOR THE AREA.  COLD
TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND DRIVES WARMER AIR BACK NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT KEAU EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 19Z AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES IN WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY. TO THE
WEST...A PATCH OF VFR CLOUDS FROM 035-050 WILL COVER THE TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS MOVE INTO KEAU BY 20Z. THIS
DECK MAY SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS BKN-
OVC080-100 WILL BE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF CLIPPER. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DOWN THE MN RIVER FROM APPLETON TO
MANKATO. THIS WILL IMPACT KRWF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. VSBY FORECAST OF 3/4SM ATTM. SOME OF
THIS SNOW WILL GET PULLED EASTWARD ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST
CENTRAL WI FROM MID MORNING ONWARD AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. OVERALL...MVFR CEILINGS WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THE
ONSET OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NW DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DETERIORATING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ON WEDNESDAY TO
MVFR/IFR RESPECTIVELY AS SNOW MOVES IN. SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING.
SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WEDNESDAY FROM 2-3 INCHES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. NW 4-8 KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS SE 5 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR. WINDS NORTH 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ054-056-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ076-077-084-085-093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH





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