Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMPX 030400
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1100 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FADE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE FA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING BUT SPEEDS WILL BE MORE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/MO
ON MONDAY. A MAINLY SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH)
WHERE AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST ALONG WITH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT AS ONE HEADS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE SPECIFICS OF THE
FORECAST ONCE WE GET TO AROUND MIDWEEK AND BEYOND... WITH RUN TO RUN
CHANGES EVIDENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND QUITE A BIG OF SPREAD IN
THE GEFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVES AND
POSITION/TIMING OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD... WITH DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL RIDING KEEPING THINGS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS WE WORK INTO WEDNESDAY THE DETAILS START TO DIVERGE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS TO COLLAPSE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS A
CUTOFF RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN FLUX THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD... WITH DIFFERING IDEAS ON IF/HOW THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF. ALLOWING SOME CHANCE POPS TO SLOWLY ENCROACH ON
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON A SURFACE WAVE MOVING FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME IN COMPARISON TO THE
ECMWF AND GEM... AND RESEMBLES MORE OF WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS
SHOWING... WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO WHAT YESTERDAY/S 12Z GFS
SHOWED. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WE ULTIMATELY SHOULD ONLY NEED TO DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF DISCRETE
CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THAT TIME FRAME... AND HOPEFULLY SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER DIAL IN ON THINGS AND ALLOW FOR
REMOVAL OF POPS DURING SOME OF THE PERIOD. WILL GO WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SLIGHT
CONSENSUS ON BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA AND ACTION SHIFTING
NORTH/EAST OF US. BY SUNDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE MEANINGFUL AND
AGREED-UPON UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS... HELPING TO DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH THIS IDEA... WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP MID
MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP MID
MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND E AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRB



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.