Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 222051
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
351 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

A band of mid level clouds moved eastward across Minnesota this
morning and will enter western Wisconsin later this evening. Radar
returns showed precipitation across western MN, but metars showed
only light precip and nothing measurable, so transitioned light
pops to flurries and sprinkles overnight.

On Thursday a large upper level low that is currently moving onshore
the California coast will move across the 4-corners and become
cutoff from the main flow. Low level theta_e advection will lead to
saturation in the lowest 700 mb of the atmosphere and forecast
soundings show enough lift to produce some light rain. Have pops
increasing throughout the day on Thursday, but again little
accumulation.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

The main focus of the long term period is the system set to impact
our area from tomorrow through the weekend.  By tomorrow evening,
the cut-off upper low will be positioned over the four corners
region with surface cyclogenesis ongoing across eastern Colorado.
The warm front will be draped across southern MN/northern IA and
into central WI tomorrow night and will be the focus for the
rainfall development given the strong low level convergence.

The latest trends with the forecast guidance indicates the heaviest
rain potential across far southern MN and northern IA.  The outlier
is the Canadian model which is much farther north.  The latest ECMWF
run shifted its QPF southward this morning, more in line with the
GFS.  In addition, the GEFS members indicate less than a 50% chance
of seeing an inch of rain north of Mankato.  With high pressure
pushing into the great lakes from the north during this period, tend
to lean toward the southern consensus.

This low will slowly move east across northern Oklahoma into
southern Missouri before finally turning northeast toward Chicago by
Sunday.  With that, we could see light precip lift back into the
region during this period.

Beyond that, the pattern looks to remain active with continued waves
moving through the center of the country.  Possibly additional
strong cut off lows moving through late in the period.  In terms of
temperatures, we look to run near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

The midlevel cloud deck continues to push eastward through MN.
Winds will remain SE through the period, but chances for MVFR
conditions return late tomorrow morning as enough moisture is
advected over the area.

KMSP...

Cloud cover will increase this afternoon with VFR conditions
likely persisting through 13Z on Thursday. Cloud deck heights
should decrease through late Thursday morning along with -SHRA
beginning after 18Z Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu night. MVFR/IFR with -RA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
Fri...MVFR with -RA likely. Chc IFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
Sat...Chc MVFR -RA. Wind ENE 10-15 kts.
Sun...Chc MVFR -RA. Wind ENE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...AMK



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