Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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079
FXUS63 KMPX 222358
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
658 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

After a week of rainy weather, the air mass has dried out quite a
bit today with mostly sunny skies over much of southern MN into West
Central Wisconsin. However, two areas of incoming clouds and precip
will affect the area. Mid clouds and some showers had already moved
into southwest MN with associated short wave coming from the
northwest. There might be some thunder in south central MN and have
kept those in the grids. That area will slide across our southern
counties tonight. The other area of clouds and light showers will
drop southward later tonight and Tuesday as upper trough drops
south. This will affect central into southwest MN, and eventually
east central MN into Wisconsin later Tuesday morning and
afternoon. The GFS is rather bullish with more rain and clouds
then most models, but have kept the grids a little quieter than
that.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A much drier pattern will take hold from the middle of the week
onward, with only two main chances of precipitation - one with a
front Thursday night into Friday and the other Sunday into Monday.

Cyclonic flow will finally be on the way out Tuesday evening.
Clearing skies will follow for midweek although temperatures
remain cool in the wake of the impressively deep trough heading
toward the East Coast. Temperatures rebound back toward normal
Thursday in advance of the front and Friday/Saturday in the wake
of the front where temperatures aloft actually warm a bit. Poor
lapse rates should limit the thunder threat Thursday night/Friday
and the GFS appears to be a bit too aggressive with precip
coverage. Continued with 30-40 PoPs.

Confidence diminishes Memorial Day weekend with GFS maintaining a
closed low over the central U.S. while the GEM/ECMWF are much
farther northeast with the system over the Great Lakes and a
ridge building eastward into the High Plains. Either way,
temperatures will trend back below normal and odds of a weekend
washout appear low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Only minor changes needed to TAFs with the 00z set. Watching two
strong shortwaves on satellite this evening, first down in SW MN
will slide east along I-90 this evening. Rain has made it up into
the RWF area and may get into EAU, but this wave will remain
south of all other terminals. Other wave is up by Baudette and
will track SSW through the night, reaching SW MN Tue morning.
Steadier rain with it will remain west of MSP tonight, but still
anticipate scattered showers to develop late morning into the
afternoon area wide, with the greatest coverage beneath the upper
low, or between MSP and AXN. This northern wave will also bring
the increased threat of IFR/MVFR cigs as well. LAMP may be a bit
overdone with how low it takes cigs, but followed its general idea
for timing on bringing MVFR cigs in west of MSP. MSP east,
confidence on cigs is lower, but do think the LAMP is a bit
overdone with the amount of MVFR cigs it brings into eastern MN
and western WI.

KMSP...We look to be on the eastern edge of the more solid MVFR
cloud field expected to be west of MSP by Tue morning, though it
is certainly possible MSP sees lower cigs than what is in the
forecast, including going below 018. Forecast soundings support
what we are seeing with the CAMs with scattered showers developing
by late morning and lasting through the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG



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