Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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086
FXUS63 KMPX 151737 CCA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1221 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The last band of light rain was moving southeast across east central
Minnesota early this morning. This band of light rain was associated
with the comma-head/deformation zone of the departing storm system.
Most of this precipitation will exit Minnesota by 6 am, and through
most of west central Wisconsin by 9 am. The back edge of the cloud
cover should move through most of Minnesota by 9 am, but likely
continuing in west central Wisconsin until noon.

Another fast, but weak short wave was evident across northwest North
Dakota early this morning. This system will provide for more cloud
cover this afternoon in central/east central Minnesota, and into
west central Wisconsin during the evening. Although this short wave
is weak, there is enough moisture associated with it to produce some
sprinkles or light rain in central, and east central Minnesota late
this afternoon, and into west central Wisconsin this evening. Once
this system moves out of the area and winds die off in the evening,
temperatures will fall to near the freezing mark and allow for frost
to form. Although most areas in southern/central Minnesota have
already received a frost/freeze this season, some areas along the
Iowa border, southeast Minnesota, and portions of west central
Wisconsin have not seen a widespread frost. Therefore, if conditions
warrant, a freeze warning or a frost advisory will be issued later
today in the areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

There is little to discuss in the long term aside from the much
above normal temperatures building in.

A very quiet pattern will persist across the country this week
with an expansive mid level ridge stretching from coast to coast,
keeping the storm track well to the north. Surface high pressure
near the eastern seaboard will sustain a steady southerly flow
from the Plains through the western Great Lakes. The only
exception through the period will come Wednesday due to a brief
weakness in the ridge allowing a front to dip through. By
Thursday the front will wash out and the southerly flow will
resume.

The warmest days are expected to be Friday and Saturday when highs
could approach 80 degrees. Thermal ridging with 925 mb temps
exceeding +17C will move in ahead of a front progged to reach the
area Saturday night. Temperatures may need to be nudged upward
again in future forecasts.

Until Saturday, PoPs are zero and sky cover is quite scant. Going
to be quite a week weatherwise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Last of the MVFR/IFR cigs will be gone by 18z issuance. A short
wave moving through nw MN will be our next feature of interest. As
the wave moves toward eastern MN it weakens slightly. There is
decent moisture with the wave over central and northern MN, but
moisture is lacking as well as upward motion over the southern
areas. As a result the only noticeable impact to aviation will be
a mid level cloud deck moving southeast with the wave. A few
sprinkles may be noted north of the KSTC and KAXN terminals. That
wave and associated clouds/moisture will be out of the area by
midnight and after that it is dry...a few bouts of scattered
clouds coupled with a return to southwest winds.

KMSP...

VFR conditions through the rest of the taf period. Might see a few
scattered clouds above 18k ft. Winds decrease and back to the
southwest overnight.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Tue-Fri...VFR. Winds generally from the S-SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&


$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DRL



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