Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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843
FXUS63 KMPX 252333
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
633 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

The first wave of showers had moved northward across northern Iowa
and into southern Minnesota during the afternoon. Regional radar
did show that most of Iowa was rain free from earlier convection
this morning. However, southern Minnesota remains in the right
entrance region of the upper jet which coincides with abundant low
level moisture advecting northward. Therefore, periods of showers
will continue across most of central and southern Minnesota, and
into west central Wisconsin this evening. Once this storm system
moves from the Dakotas, northeast across northern Minnesota, and
eventually the northern part of the Great Lakes, the precipitation
will gradually taper off from south to north across southern
Minnesota. The steadier rainfall this evening will become more
scattered toward morning and slowly become more isolated by the
afternoon.

Forecast profiles in west central/central Minnesota late tonight
and early Wednesday does support at least a mixture of rain and
snow. However, ground temperatures remain warm and the
precipitation rate is not expected to be heavy. Thus, any snow
that falls will quickly melt, especially considering surface
temperatures will be slightly above freezing. Tomorrow will be raw
with a brisk north/northwest wind along with temperatures holding
in the 30s and 40s. Wind chill values will average in the 20s
across western and central Minnesota, with southern Minnesota, and
west central Wisconsin having wind chill values in the mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Most of the extended period, from tomorrow night through next
Tuesday, looks to be relatively quiet and chilly. The main item of
interest, which could be somewhat significant, is a storm system
which will impact the area Sunday and Monday. We may have some
lingering shower activity tomorrow night and Thursday in the wake of
the current system, and some mix with snow could certainly occur
given the cold air aloft. However, precipitation amounts will be
minimal, so no real impacts are expected.

Frost/freeze conditions could be an issue tomorrow night and
subsequent night across areas where the growing season has
started. However, things still look to be fairly cloudy tomorrow
night, which should help mitigate frost issues. So, for now, left
any mention out of the forecast, but it will certainly need
watching. After that we`ll remain under the influence of an upper
trough into the weekend as we sit along the southern periphery of
a surface high centered to our northwest over Canada. A southern
stream wave will scoot by to our south on Friday, and could bring
some light rain into the southern portion of the area. However,
the main chance of widespread and more significant precipitation
looks to arrive on Sunday as a fairly strong surface low develops
over Texas later Saturday and lifts north into Wisconsin by
Monday. The deterministic and ensemble guidance is all in fairly
good agreement with the system considering how far out in time it
is. There are certainly some differences in the details, and those
could eventually be important, particularly if we`re able to drag
more cold air southward ahead of the system, which could lead to
more in the way of snowfall (with forecast precipitation amounts
from 0.5-1.5" that would obviously be a concern). For now, will
have mostly rain in the forecast, but will mention a mix with some
snow given the uncertainty and forecast profiles that could
certainly support it depending upon which solution you consider.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Rain will persist at sites tonight (with KAXN on the western
fringes), and ceilings will degrade to MVFR this evening, and IFR
between 03z-06z MN sites (07-12z WI sites). Expect prevalent IFR
cigs through at least Wednesday morning, with some improvement to
MVFR possible Wednesday afternoon in the wake of the measurable
precip. Visibilities should primarily range from 3sm-5sm in the
rain. Northeast winds become more north/northwesterly on Wednesday
with gusts to between 20 and 25 knots common.

KMSP...
Ceilings will lower to MVFR between 03z and 06z with 3-5sm
visibilities in the rain. Winds will gradually increase from the
northeast, with gusts developing by 12z. Rain showers become
isolated Wednesday morning, but the IFR cigs will persist through
at least the morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...MVFR likely, IFR possible. Chc -RA/-SN early.
Winds N 5-15 kt bcmg light & variable.
Fri...Mainly VFR. Winds N 5-10 kt.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Winds NE 5-10 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LS



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