Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 172305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
605 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Updated to include 00Z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Cyclonic flow/caa continues behind the cold front. A few light
showers of rain and/or snow affecting a small portion of the mainly
the northeast CWA into the evening. Could even see a sprinkle in the
metro...but will leave that out for now. Strong west/northwest winds
will be the theme for tonight. Gusts around 30 kts possible into
the evening as pressure gradient/rise axis shifts east. They should
diminish from west to east after 06z Sat. Clouds will remain this
evening...with some erosion expected to the west after midnight as
drier air works in.

Clouds may linger into the far east early Saturday...but we should
see ample sunshine along with lighter winds as the high pressure
ridge moves through. Temperatures should range similar to Fridays
readings...perhaps a degree cooler...mainly to the east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Fairly quiet weather in the first part of the long term forecast,
but the pattern will get more active toward the later part of the
week. As of now, expect widespread rain, rain/snow to move across
the region next Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures will be well
above normal on Sunday, and remain near of slightly above normal
through most of next week.

On Sunday an upper level ridge will be centered overhead and warm
air advection will move across the Upper Midwest. This set up is
favorable for very warm temperatures, but did not go above guidance
since forecast soundings show low clouds overhead. It seems like
forecast models have been overdoing the low level moisture recently,
but there are subtle H500 height falls so have some reason to
believe that stratus will exist which will hold back temperatures.

A cold front will move through Monday, and temperatures will cool
off a bit for Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday split flow will
develop a cyclone across southern Canada, while the southerly jet
will dig out a deep trough over the southern plains that is forecast
to lift northward on Friday and bring widespread rain across the
Upper Midwest. The GEM/GFS 17.12 are in good agreement, so the 70 to
80 percent chance of precip seems justified for late next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Main concerns are the gusty northwest winds and widespread MVFR
ceilings. There are some light showers, mainly rain but with some
snowflakes, currently impacting the north/east portion of the
area. These should slide east this evening as the cyclonic flow
shifts eastward along with a weak upper level vorticity lobe. The
MVFR ceilings look to stick around through the night before
scattering out from west to east on Saturday. Winds should die
down later tonight as the surface ridge starts to work into the
area, and will eventually shift around to the east and southeast
toward the end of the period.

KMSP...Main area of uncertainty is the departure of the MVFR
ceilings. Guidance is in reasonable agreement, and given current
trends, sometime mid-late morning Saturday seems most reasonable,
but could certainly change by +/- 3 hours or so.

Saturday overnight...VFR. Southeast wind increasing to 10 to 15
Sunday...Brief MVFR possible in the afternoon. South wind 10 to
20 kt.
Sunday night...VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 20 kt.
Monday through Tuesday...VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 20 kt
decreasing to 5 to 10 kt Tuesday.
Tuesday night...VFR. North wind 5 kt or less becoming northeast.




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