Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 101639
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1139 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

MOCLR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU THE REST OF THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE AREA. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
E OF THE AREA BY TNGT...BEING FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A WEAK SFC TROF
OF LOW PRES IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRES OVER WRN
CANADA. THIS TROF WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MRNG WHILE MOISTURE FEEDS INTO IT FROM THE NW. THERE WILL STILL BE
A FAIRLY DEEP LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER /AT LEAST 5 KFT AND POTENTIALLY
UP TO 10 KFT...WITH THE DEEPER DRY AIR OVER SRN MN AND FILLING IN
GOING N/. THIS DRY LAYER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE GROUND...LET ALONG MEASURING...OVERNIGHT BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE. SO...HAVE MAINTAINED 20/30 POPS ACRS THE
ENTIRE CWFA OVERNIGHT AND KEPT THE GRIDS AS SHOWING THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AS MOVING W TO E. ANY POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS ENDS BY LATE
MRNG AND WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY TMRW AFTN.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN MILD WITH LOW LEVEL W TO SW FLOW
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. THE COLDER AIR...ALONG WITH ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION...WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA. THEREFORE...LOWS TNGT WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
RECORDED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED
TDA...DUE TO A MORE SLY COMPONENT IN THE SFC WINDS RATHER THAN THE
NW COMPONENT TDA. MAX TEMPS FRI WILL GENERALLY RANGE 60-70
DEGREES...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LWR 70S IN SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST:

-STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD RAIN SIGNAL ON SATURDAY
-VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRONOUNCED COOL DOWN SUN-WED

THE WHOLE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
PERTURBATIONS FROM NORMAL ACROSS THE CONUS. UNFORTUNATELY...THOSE
IN MN/WI IN FAVOR OF WARMER SPRING TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS RUN 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. THE AMPLIFICATION THAT OCCURS
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC IS IN THE FORM OF BUILDING
RIDGES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

BEFORE THE COLD AIR RETURNS ON SUNDAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WITH DIFFUSE FORCING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI. THE 600-700MB FGEN LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 15-30% RANGE. ON
SATURDAY...A NICE WEST-EAST ORIENTATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
ACROSS MN/WI WITH STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
EARLY IN MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IN THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESN`T MOVE VERY FAST AND
HANGS JUST TO OUT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
COLD RAIN ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF YOU BUY THE 06Z NAM. BEST LI
NEAR AND MEAGER MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP INTO MN ON SATURDAY
SUGGESTING AT LEAST WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN MN AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME DECENT
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF THE SET UP.

EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE LOW IS EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND TRACKS MO/IL AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD LEAVE US IN THE COLDER-DRIER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND WE
WOULD MISS MOST OF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 40S MON...TUE...AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR XPCTD THRU THIS TAF SET. HOWEVER...LIKE OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MRNG...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPR LVL WAVE MOVG THRU THE
AREA WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WEAK -SHRA ACRS ALL
TERMINALS FROM W TO E. BECAUSE OF CONTINUED DRY LOWER LEVELS ACRS
THE AREA...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AS VFR...AND BECAUSE
PRECIP CHCS ARE RELATIVELY LOW /ONLY ARND 30 PERCENT/...THEY MAY
POSSIBLY BE REMOVED IN LATER TAF CYCLES. DID WANT TO INCLUDE IT
HERE TO ADVERTISE THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP BUT
NOT MUCH. HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTN WILL STEADILY LOWER AND FORM
MIDLVL CIGS DURG THE EVE HRS. CIGS LOOK TO GET AS LOW AS ARND 5
KFT BEFORE RISING AND DISSIPATING FRI MRNG. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO W...THEN
REMAIN FROM THE SW TO WSW THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TMRW...INCRG BACK
TO ARND 10 KT.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT. HIGH CLOUDS INCRS IN COVERAGE AND LOWER
THRU THIS EVENING...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE ISOLD -SHRA IN THE PRE-DAWN HRS...BUT
NOTHING THAT SHOULD DROP CONDS OUT OF VFR RANGE. CLOUDS THEN LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT TMRW MRNG INTO TMRW AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NIGHT...VFR EARLY...MVFR CIGS LATE. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA LATE.
WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BCMG SE.
SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS
BCMG N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET TODAY IS ACTUALLY
HIGHER THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO FOR SEEING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
YESTERDAY. BEING IN A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE MORE
EFFICIENT MIXING AND DRIER HUMIDITIES. YESTERDAY WE HAD HUMIDITIES
FORECAST TO BE MORE OR LESS 24%-30% WHERE WE HAD THE RFW. FOR
TODAY...HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GET SOLIDLY DOWN INTO THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE FOR ALL BUT THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE MPX
AREA. THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR FOR MEETING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY WILL BE GETTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH. AGAIN THE MORE
EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD MAKE THAT EASIER TO ACHIEVE AS WELL. WHEN
ALL WAS SAID AND DONE...HAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
NEARLY THE ENTIRE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWA. HOWEVER...HELD THE
EXPANSION TO COUNTIES WITHIN OUR WIND FAVORED REGIONS OF WRN/SRN
MN WHERE HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>058-064>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...MPG






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