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000
FNUS73 KMPX 241034
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Ten Mile Creek...Usfws
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
534 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Ten Mile Creek Rx Burn, skies will be
mostly sunny today with a few high clouds moving through from west
to east this afternoon. This will allow highs today to be in the
mid to upper 50s. Dry conditions are expected, with relative
humidity values forecasted to be in the 50s this morning before
dropping into the mid-low 30s by the afternoon. Winds will
generally southeasterly and becoming southerly by 2 PM at 5-10
MPH. Smoke plumes may near the general vicinity of the
residential area at the intersection of 145th Ave and 112th
Street.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Widespread frost early in
                    the morning.
Temperature.........33 at ignition...Max 56.
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    south around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /8700 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /27100 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....WID
Weather type....FST
Tstm cov........
Temp............33  36  42  45  48  50  53  55  55  56  55  54
RH..............75  64  50  47  44  41  38  35  35  33  35  36
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   6   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  9   8   7   7   7   6   8   8   7   8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.8 2.1 2.6 3.4 4.2 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.1 5.2 2.1
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd.9   8   8   6   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Min 36.
RH..................Max 65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (26100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 7 to 13 mph early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........Max 64.
RH..................Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (75400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dunleavy
Requested by...Tracy Ronnander
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412111.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Tracy_ronnander@fws.gov