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000
FXUS63 KMQT 240826
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
426 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry air, clear skies, and light winds today.
- More unsettled weather expected for the coming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 424 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

GOES-16 Channel 10 Water Vapor imagery shows significantly drier air
moving over the UP this morning. RAP Analysis shows 500mb height
rises as ridging builds over the UP following the passage of the
trough responsible for yesterday`s active weather. Under
northwesterly flow aloft, cooler temperatures prevail today with NBM
mean highs only in the mid 30s along Lake Superior and upper 40s
further into the interior west. With clear skies, efficient mixing
of dry air aloft is expected, with the 10th percentile of all
available model guidance over the UP suggesting dew points nearing
the single digits, resulting in RH values in the 20s and upper teens
in the interior of the UP. While normally this would be a concern
for fire weather, the ridging will provide light and variable
winds of 5-10 mph. Given those winds and the cooler
temperatures and recent precipitation, fire weather concerns are
lower than previous dry weather days. CAMs do indicate some
lake breeze activity today, particularly from Lake Michigan and
along the Keweenaw.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a trough on the west coast, a ridge in
the plains and a trough on the east coast 00z Thu. Troughing moves
into the central Rockies 00z Fri with a ridge over the upper Great
Lakes. The trough then becomes negatively tilted in the central
plains 12z Fri and then moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat.
Deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moves into the
area 18z Fri and remains into 12z Sat. Did slow down pops into the
area Friday as they looked way too fast with a system being
negatively tilted and antecedent airmass out ahead of it is awfully
dry. Went dry for Fri morning and would not be surprised if Fri for
the whole area does not turn out to be dry.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the
southern Rockies and a negatively tilted shortwave over the upper
Mississippi River Valley and a ridge on the east coast 12z Sat. The
trough moves into the central plains 12z Sun and then becomes
negatively tilted as it moves northeast into the upper Great Lakes
12z Mon. This negatively tilted trough slows down and remains over
the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. Ridging then moves into the area 12z
Wed. Temperatures are above normal on Saturday and then fall to near
normal Sunday into Tuesday with an active and wet weather pattern
setting up. Temperatures go back above normal on Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

MVFR conditions will persist at SAW through Wed 09Z as a low
pressure system pushes farther away from Upper Michigan. At
that point though, VFR will return and prevail through the end
of the TAF period. Elsewhere, VFR is already prevailing at IWD
and CMX and is expected to continue as high pressure overspreads
the area. Meanwhile, gusts have tapered off at both IWD and
CMX, but northeasterly wind gusts up to 30 kts will continue at
SAW through early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Winds continue to diminish below 20 knots today as high pressure
builds in. This high then lingers over the Great Lakes through
Thursday which will keep winds suppressed until Friday when winds
will increase from the southeast/east to 20 to 30 knots and may push
gale force gusts up to 40 knots Friday night along the U.S. Canadian
waters region of eastern Lake Superior. Low pressure then forecast
to track northeast across the region this weekend...which in turn
will bring winds back around from the north in the Sunday time
frame. Winds stay up to around 30 knots Saturday into Monday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for
     LSZ240>245-251.

  Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     LSZ246-247.

  Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LSZ248>250.

Lake Michigan...
  Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ221-
     248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...07