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000
FXUS64 KMRX 141730 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
130 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The morning update will make some adjustments to hourly
temp/dewpoint grids to better match obs in the next few hours, but
overall the forecast is on track for mostly sunny skies and highs
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Gusty SW winds are expected to
develop this afternoon as the morning inversion lifts and 25-35
kt winds at the top of the boundary layer mix down to the surface,
reaching mainly between 20-30 mph in the Valley, possibly 35-40
mph at times in some of the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Key Messages:

1. Warm with a gusty southwesterly winds this afternoon.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a trough will be over the East Coast and a
ridge will be over the Great Plains. At the surface, high pressure
will be over the Southeast. A weak cold front will move through
the Ohio Valley tonight bringing rain to Kentucky and West
Virginia. That rain will likely stay north of our Southwest
Virginia counties. Dry weather is expected today and tonight with
FEW to SCT clouds. Mixing conditions will be favorable for strong
850 mb winds to reach the surface late this afternoon into the
evening hours. Gusts up to 30 mph are likely, maybe slightly
higher in the higher elevations. With southwesterly winds and WAA
today dew points will be slightly higher today than yesterday.
With good mixing conditions, relative humidity values will likely
be in the lower 30 percent range in most locations. Fuel moisture
is likely high enough to keep fire danger minimal.

Highs today will likely hit 80 for most of the Tennessee Valley
with strong southwesterly flow and clear skies. Lows tonight will
be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Key Messages:

1. Increasing rain chances with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
through Friday.

2. Turning much colder Friday and Saturday behind front. Frost
possible in parts of northeast TN and southwest VA.

Discussion:

On Monday a weak shortwave will pass through the area and try and
bring with it a weak surface front moving in from the north. Still
looks like this frontal boundary will get hung up somewhere across
the Ohio Valley, maybe down into Kentucky by Monday. Along and near
this front we could see some showers develop with the best chances
for our region across northern TN and southwest VA... However any
showers that do occur are expected to only bring brief drizzle or
light rain.

Warm and dry conditions will likely continue through Wednesday for
the vast majority of people, at which point a strong low pressure
system will swing out of the plains states towards the Great Lakes
region and help push thorugh a frontal boundary over the eastern
half of the United States. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
continue for most of the second half of the week as storm chances
are reinforced with a secondary system dropping into the region
behind the initial frontal boundary. High pressure will try to
rebuild Thursday over the region but a secondary front moves in from
the west around the same time. This will increase rain chances later
Thursday night and through the day Friday. The timing of the front
Friday with the warm airmass in place could set the stage for strong
to severe storms. Behind Fridays system a much colder airmass will
drop temperatures 15+ degrees back into the 50s and 60s Saturday as
high pressure builds in. There is the possibility of patchy frost
across parts of southwest VA and the higher elevations of northeast
TN heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Sustained winds of 10-15 kt with gust of 20-25 kt are expected to
continue through the afternoon. With sunset, winds at the surface
will diminish, but winds aloft will remain strong. LLWS will be
mentioned at all sites overnight. Winds will be lighter tomorrow,
generally 5-10 kt. VFR conditions are expected through the period,
but some scattered cloud around 5 kft will build into the area
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  57  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  80  59  81  59 /   0   0  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  55  82  58 /   0   0  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              76  54  77  56 /   0   0  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DGS
AVIATION...DGS