851
FXUS63 KOAX 281130
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
630 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday, with the potential
  for a few brief, weak tornadoes.

- Another round of showers and storms possible
  Tuesday/Wednesday. A few storms could be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today through Monday...

More robust storm development over parts of Kansas and Missouri
effectively blocked stronger storms from developing over parts of
the forecast area Saturday. Overnight lows dipped into the 50s,
with scattered showers moving into eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue throughout the day
today, as a surface low moves across the forecast area. There is a
slight chance (5-15%) for a few isolated storms to develop ahead of
the incoming dry line, and potentially produce hail up to the size
of quarters, gusty winds, and perhaps a couple of weak tornadoes.
While uncertainty in this scenario is fairly high, given the
extensive cloud cover and stronger convection to our southeast, the
best chance looks to be over far southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa, from around noon to 6 PM.

Lingering showers and storms look to clear the forecast area by
midnight tonight, with dry conditions prevailing through Monday.
Highs today and tomorrow are expected to be in the 60s to low 70s
for the majority of the region.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Precipitation chances return by mid week, with a cold front swinging
through the Central Plains on Tuesday, followed by a warm front
lifting back through the region ahead of the next surface low,
Wednesday. While the details regarding timing and location remain
unclear at this time, there will be the chance for showers and
storms, a few of which could be strong to severe.

Off and on precipitation chances continue through the upcoming
weekend. Temperatures will generally be in the 60s and low 70s each
day, with Tuesday looking to be the only outlier, as highs could
reach the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

MVFR to IFR ceilings will remain in place through much of the
period, with some on and off rain this morning and thunderstorm
chance late morning into the afternoon. Confidence in exact
timing of storms is somewhat low, but included 2 hour TEMPO
groups at each site to indicate most favored timing per latest
short term guidance. Once storms exit this afternoon, expect
lingering MVFR to IFR ceilings into the evening, though signs
point to ceilings at LNK scattering out late in the evening.
Otherwise, expect northeast (OFK) to southeast (OMA/LNK) winds
generally under 12 kts ahead of storms, followed by northwest to
west winds once storms pass.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA