822
FXUS64 KOHX 090442
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN
1142 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Earlier warm front now stationary and centered w-e just north of I-
40. This far northern area has served as the flood threat with
numerous advisories and warnings issued thus far. Flood reports have
been received mainly across the Robertson and Sumner county areas.
Energy along the boundary is working eastward with the bulk of the
activity now across the Plateau. To the south, airmass is hanging on
to a weak cap despite warming temps. Upstream however, 2 separate
slugs of energy will be pushing southeastward. This translates to 2
rounds of severe. The 1st will occur from 3pm to 6pm, with the 2nd
round in the 8 pm to midnight timeframe. All forms of severe weather
will be possible. Instabilities will be greatest across our south so
I would think the largest(non tornadic) hail would occur there. As
for rainfall amounts, the flood watch shall continue. Latest Hrrr
shows isolated storm totals of up to 6 inches across an area
stretching from far north central middle TN eastward across the
northern Plateau. Now models do hang onto the light to
moderate shower activity through 12Z to 18Z before ending.

Look for clearing skies Thursday night with cooler temps. Upper
troughing will feature a Friday shortwave with a few showers.
Saturday looks similar with an additional shortwave. The near term
temps will continue to run rather warm tonight and Thursday with 80s
for highs once again. Noticeably cooler by Friday morning with lows
back down into the 50s. We may seven see some 40s by Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

In the extended forecast, ridging will return for Monday. The next
system of interest will be for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Instability looks weak for now so mostly just looking at showers and
non severe tstms for now.

Extended temps will start out on the cool side but will warm back to
near 80 for highs by mid week. Overnight lows will work back into
the lower 60s as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is still expected to
sweep across all TAF sites tonight. Prevailing wind will remain
southerly around 10kt. Thunderstorm winds may be significantly
higher, around 20kt with gusts to 34 kts. VFR conditions return by
midday tomorrow with west to northwest wind 5-10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  85  58  72 /  90  30  10  10
Clarksville    67  82  55  70 /  90  10  10  10
Crossville     63  79  53  66 /  90  70  20  30
Columbia       65  86  56  72 /  90  30  10  10
Cookeville     65  81  55  67 / 100  60  20  20
Jamestown      63  80  53  66 / 100  60  20  30
Lawrenceburg   66  85  57  72 /  90  40  10  10
Murfreesboro   65  85  56  72 / 100  40  10  10
Waverly        65  83  54  71 /  90  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Grundy-
Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-
Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-Williamson-
Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....99