940
FXUS64 KOHX 031137
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
637 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered showers are ongoing across the area thanks to a
weakening shortwave to our west. That wave will slowly move
through the area this morning and lift northeast of the plateau by
lunchtime. More scattered showers and storms will develop this
afternoon as another disturbance approaches. MLCAPE values this
afternoon will be 1000-1500 J/kg but shear will be weak. While a
gusty storm can`t be ruled out, severe storms are not expected.
There will likely be a lull in the action tonight into Saturday
morning as we are in between waves and we lose the diurnal
heating. More scattered showers and storms will develop Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The upper air pattern will remain active in the extended forecast
as the quasi-zonal flow brings weak disturbance after weak
disturbance. The scattered showers and storms from Saturday will
continue into Saturday night before we catch a break Sunday
morning and afternoon. Another wave will approach Sunday evening
with more showers and storms overnight. That wave will linger into
Monday. Some temporary upper ridging may try to build into the
area on Tuesday which could lower the rain chances, but it will be
short-lived as the quasi-zonal/southwesterly flow reestablishes
itself midweek. Overnight temperatures through the forecast will
be mild thanks to dew points in the 60s and extensive cloud
cover. Daily highs will depend on the coverage of showers and
storms each day but generally highs will be in the mid 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers have spread across Middle Tennessee this morning, and it
appears that low ceilings are soon to move in as the boundary
layer becomes more saturated. Rain chances stay with us for the
foreseeable future, so get used to these kinds of TAFs. There is
some instability in the atmosphere, especially during the
afternoon, so we`ve included a few hours of VCTS after 18Z.
However, we don`t expect any sort of organized convection, so it
is difficult to pinpoint any exact timing of thunderstorm activity
due to their scattered nature. Rain chances will taper off
(temporarily) by this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      80  66  81  65 /  70  60  50  40
Clarksville    78  63  81  64 /  80  40  30  40
Crossville     74  61  74  60 /  80  60  70  50
Columbia       80  64  80  63 /  80  50  40  40
Cookeville     76  63  76  62 /  80  60  60  50
Jamestown      75  61  75  60 /  90  60  70  50
Lawrenceburg   80  64  79  63 /  80  50  40  40
Murfreesboro   80  64  80  63 /  80  50  50  40
Waverly        79  63  79  64 /  70  50  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Rose