212
FXUS61 KOKX 022348
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
748 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes offshore this evening followed by high
pressure building down the New England coast through Friday. The
high retreats farther offshore on Saturday as a frontal system
approaches from the west. This system moves slowly through the
region Saturday night into Sunday with the associated cold front
passing through Monday. The front then stalls south of the region
and moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold
front approaches for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front was moving through the lower Hudson Valley and into
northeastern New Jersey, and approaching New York City at 23Z,
and will continue tracking slowly south this evening. Across
areas with southerly winds/sea breezes temperatures rise with
the initial wind shift to the north as dew points rapidly fall.
Tough timing of the passage of the front. And where winds remain
southerly some stratus and fog has been moving back into
coastal sections of Long Island. Behind the front ridging builds
in both aloft and at the surface through Friday. The surface
high will build down from eastern Canada and along the New
England coast during this time. As it does, NE winds will
strengthen a bit tonight along with some low-level moisture
working back in from along the New England coast. This will
allow for partly to mostly cloudy skies to move in from the NE
for the second half of the night, but this should be short-
lived as some drier mixes into the area on Friday.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, warmest
across the NYC metro. Highs then warm up into the upper 50s and
lower 60s along the coast, and 65-70 inland. This is slightly
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure gradually retreats offshore during this time as a
slow moving frontal system approaches from the SW. This will
allow for increasing clouds Friday night into Saturday. ESE
winds will continue during this time with temperatures remaining
several degrees below normal, in fact it will be cooler for
inland area versus the previous day due to increase in clouds
and onshore flow. Warm advection could bring a few showers in
late in the day, mainly north and west of NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level ridge axis shifts offshore late Saturday night
into early Sunday and the flow becomes near zonal into early
next week. A longwave upper trough across eastern Canada
amplifies into the northeast Tuesday and moves offshore by
Wednesday as another upper ridge builds to the west of the area
and moves into the region, while beginning to flatten,
Wednesday. The upper flow again become nearly zonal as a tough
becomes sheared out across the northern plains and Great Lakes
region Wednesday night into Thursday. At the surface one frontal
system slowly approaches from Saturday night through Sunday,
while slowly weakening, as the system moves into the upper
ridge. Another system passes well to the north with its cold
front passing through the region Monday. The trend for these
systems Saturday night through Monday as be slower as the upper
ridge over the western Atlantic remains highly amplified. The
stalled frontal boundary to the south begins to track north as a
warm front Monday night and is expected to the north during
Wednesday. The area remains warm sectored Thursday as low
pressure over the northern plains become sheared. Temperatures
will be near to below normal Saturday night into Sunday, then
average above normal Sunday night through Thursday, with the
warmest days being Wednesday and Thursday. Generally followed
the NBM guidance, and for the days with higher temperature
spreads, and potential for warmer conditions blended the NBM and
75th percentile. There is still a possibility that a few
locations could set record high minimum temperatures Tuesday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will pass through the region late this evening,
followed by a backdoor cold front late tonight into early Friday
morning.

VFR across most terminals through 06z, except KISP where IFR
conds may come work back in until cold frontal passage around
20z. MVFR stratus likely to work in late tonight into early Fri
AM from e to w behind backdoor cold frontal passage. Gradual
improvement to VFR from e to w in the early to mid afternoon
Friday.

Winds will shift to the NW late this evening 10G15kt. Winds
weaken and shift to N and then NE, increasing to around 10 kt
for Friday morning push. Winds may become occasionally gusty
Fri AM. Winds continue to veer to the E/SE Fri afternoon. SE
winds subside less than 10 kt thru aft/eve push.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of windshift, and stratus development/dissipation may be
off by an hour or so. NE gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible during
Fri Am push.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR. Low prob of patchy MVFR stratus towards
morning.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low prob of patchy early AM MVFR. Slight
chance of showers and MVFR conditions in the afternoon,
increasing chances overnight.

Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE
winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Fog and low clouds have drifted south, and was south of the
eastern ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet. Although, with
southerly winds remaining ahead of a cold front, with the loss
of daytime heating, some stratus was moving back into the
coastal areas. Do not expected visibilities to lower below 1 nm,
and if it does, will be localized and brief. Winds will shift
to the north and bring in drier air behind a cold front. NE
winds behind the cold front later this evening increase 10-15 kt
by morning with gusts below 25 kt. Winds will then gradually
diminish on Friday. A weak pressure gradient then maintains sub-
advisory conditions across the waters Friday night through the
middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW