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000
FXUS64 KOUN 210552
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED.

THINK TSRA WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF KLAW-KOUN THROUGH
09Z...THOUGH NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY AFFECT KLAW AND KSPS 09-18Z.
ADDED VCTS AT THESE SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE KOKC AND KOUN
MAY EXPERIENCE TSRA AS WELL ANYTIME THROUGH 18Z...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OK THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...

.SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ALONG THE DRYLINE AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL MAINLY
BE ALONG I44 FROM OKC SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG AND EAST OF I35 NORTH
OF OKC. RETURNS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED EAST OF LAWTON. MOST
RECENT MESOANALYSIS AND 18Z SOUNDING SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/SW OF METRO NE
OF TRIPLE POINT. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS MERGING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL OK
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL...AND THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SE OK. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING PERHAPS THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS SE OK.

A BREAK IN RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WED...BUT WILL
RETURN THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING
THE RIDGE AXIS IMPACT THE REGION AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA. EXPECT NEAR AVG TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  84  64  83 /  10  10  20  20
HOBART OK         58  88  64  88 /  10  10  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  89  66  89 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           53  85  59  82 /   0  10  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     55  80  59  78 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         65  85  66  85 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/23/17