Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
000
FXUS61 KPHI 161351
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
951 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds across the region today and moves
offshore tonight. Another cold front passes through on Sunday,
followed by a reinforcing cold front on Monday. Several upper
level disturbances will pass through during the mid-week period
as surface high pressure builds to the west. Low pressure
approaches towards the end of the new week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM, lingering stratocumulus is dissipating faster
along the New Jersey coast down to the Delaware Beaches. Other
than some clouds hanging on a little longer in the Poconos to
far northwestern New Jersey, plenty of sunshine is ongoing. Made
some mostly minor tweaks to the hourly forecast elements to
keep them current based on the latest observations and trends.
Otherwise, high pressure (rather weak) today moves quickly
eastward from its starting point near KY/TN region. This gives
fair weather for the area with a mostly sunny sky. It will be
several degrees cooler today (compared to Friday) with highs
topping out in the 50s for the far N/W and low 60s most other
areas. Winds will be northwest this morning before shifting
more Southwest for the afternoon. Speeds increase to around 10
mph by midday and remain 10 to 15 mph into the evening.
Tonight, fair weather continues for most areas as high pressure
moves away. Clouds will increase over the western/northern
areas overnight. These areas may have scattered showers arrive
around midnight and continue towards dawn. They are associated
with a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes region. Lows
tonight will remain in the 40s for the area. Winds will be
southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front passes through the region on Sunday afternoon.
Some lingering showers are possible for the southern Poconos,
northern New Jersey, and Lehigh Valley, but QPF will be minimal.
Surface high pressure builds down into the Central and Southern
Plains as a deep upper trough pushes into the eastern third of
the United States. Another cold front passes through on Monday
bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air to the region. Shortwave
energy passing to the north may touch off some rain or snow
showers, but QPF will be minimal.
In terms of temperatures, highs on Sunday will generally range
from the upper 50s to low 60s. High temperatures then crash to
slightly below normal temperatures on Monday, generally in the
upper 40s to around 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A deep upper trough will lie over the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic for the mid-week period as surface high pressure builds
over the Midwest. A tight west to northwest pressure gradient
over the area will allow for gusty winds on Tuesday, generally
ranging from 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Temperatures will be well below normal with highs generally in
the 40s.
The base of the trough begins to flatten out and move to the
northeast on Wednesday as Canadian high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes. Highs rebound closer to normal and will be in the
upper 40s to low 50s.
High pressure builds through the region Thursday. Developing
low pressure may bring rain to the region by Friday along with
moderating temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Rest of today...VFR. Northwest or north-northwest winds 5-10
knots becoming west to southwest 10-15 knots by later this
afternoon. Moderate confidence.
Tonight...VFR. Southwest winds diminishing to less than 10 knots.
High confidence.
Outlook...
Sunday through Wednesday...A prolonged period of VFR
conditions, though a few rain or snow showers are possible for
KABE Sunday morning, and again on Monday afternoon. Any
restrictions would be brief. W to NW winds 15 to 20 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt, mainly during the daytime hours, during this
period. Moderate confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Fair weather is expected across the waters today and tonight.
High pressure will build in today and then move offshore
tonight. Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions today
and much of tonight. Later tonight, winds and seas will freshen
with some gusts in the 20/22kt range. We`ll hold on a SCA for
now with the gusts only marginal attm.
Outlook...
Sunday through Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions on Sunday, and
then starting on Monday, a prolonged period of SCA conditions
due to W-NW winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Seas may
build to 5 feet by Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
While some showers may occur late tonight and early Sunday
morning across northeast PA and northwest NJ, a period of dry
and increasingly breezy conditions is on tap starting on Sunday
and continuing through Wednesday. The minimum relative humidity
values lower to generally 30 to 35 percent during peak heating
each day, with west to northwest winds 15-20 mph with gusts
30-35 mph. The strongest winds look to occur on Tuesday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...Gorse/OHara
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Gorse/MPS/OHara
MARINE...MPS/OHara
FIRE WEATHER...Gorse/MPS