Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
000
FXUS61 KPHI 191030
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
630 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure tries to ridge across the area today while shortwave
energy aloft moves through an upper trough. Low pressure crosses
north of the area Wednesday and an attached front crosses the Middle
Atlantic region. High pressure builds in for the end of the week.
Low pressure will move along the coast Saturday before morning
away Sunday. High pressure returns for early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure builds into the Gulf Coast states and
Tennessee Valley as a deep upper trough envelops the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic. Cold air advection will be underway as strong
northwest flow develops.
Highs today will top off in the low to upper 40s, except in the
30s in the southern Poconos. Northwest winds will increase
later this morning to 15 to 20 mph with 25 to 30 mph gusts. A
stratocu deck will develop as well as the afternoon progresses.
Shortwave energy will pass north of the area tonight. Some Lake
Effect streamers will develop off of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario, and some of those snow showers could make it down to
northern New Jersey, the southern Poconos, and parts of the
Lehigh Valley. Any QPF and snowfall will be minimal.
Cloudy skies persist through tonight. Winds diminish fairly
quickly after sunset and will mainly be out the south-southwest
at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will mainly be in the low to mid
30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, one last surge of cold and dry air works its way
across the Great Lakes and towards the Middle Atlantic region. The
upper trough begins to flatten and lift away after Wed/Thu. A surface
low pressure (around 996mb) heads slowly across southern Ontario
and towards Quebec. A cold front attached to the low crosses the
area during the afternoon. There will be decent wind fields but
limited moisture accompany the front. We`ll just continue with
the chance pops for the northern third of the CWA and slight chance
pops for the areas (mostly) north/west of I95. Could end up being
gusty winds/showers for the north areas with decent inverted-V
soundings present and deep mixing expected. A little sleet mixing
in for the north-most areas is possible. Winds gusting over 40
mph probable. Highs will be in the 40s for the southern Poconos
and north NJ while 50s elsewhere. Highs close to 60 for srn Delaware.
Fair and cold Wed night with near freezing temps for the S/E areas
and 20s for N/W locals. Winds diminishing to 10 to 15 mph.
Fair weather Thursday, but dry and windy conditions with mostly
sunny skies. Fire weather concerns--see below. Temperatures
below normal with 40s and mid/upper 30s N/W. Gusty W/NW winds 10
to 20 mph with gusts to 30/35 mph possible. Fair and cold Thu
night. Lows in the 20s across the region and a few teens atop
Mount Pocono.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will still be over the area Friday, lingering from the
short term part of the forecast. Dry conditions are expected along
with increasing clouds during the day. It will still be cool for
mid/late March with highs in the 40s and lows for Sat morning ending
up in the 30s.
These cooler temps will factor in the forecast Fri night when
precipitation is expected to overspread the area from SW to NE as
low pressure moves up the East coast. The newest 00Z CMC has trended
towards the GFS runs from yesterday in bringing better QPF/lift to
the area. NBM pops for the periods are now in the likely category
for Fri night and Sat. P-type could start as some snow for the
southern Poconos and north NJ which could create local slippery
travel if precip rates increase before the sfc temps do. Highs Sat
will range from the low/mid 40s for the N/W counties to the
mid/upper 50s for Delmarva and south NJ. Generally went with NBM
temps/pops for now.
Sunday and Monday will see a return back to dry conditions with high
pressure returning to the area. Just like the past few days, temps
will not be in any hurry to return back to late spring levels and
readings will continue mostly below normal. Highs will be in the 40s
Sunday and closer to 50 for Monday. Breezy weather both days.
Looking towards Tuesday, most present operational models are dry for
the area and there are indications that temps may pops back near
normal for a few days. Rather low confidence fcst past the weekend
at this point.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR. Stratocu deck develops later this morning at 6000
to 8000 feet. NW winds 10 to 15 kt this morning will increase to
15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt for most of this afternoon.
High confidence.
Tonight...VFR. Stratocu deck at 6000 to 8000 ft will scatter
out after 06Z. Winds diminish fairly quickly and become S-SW at
5 to 10 kt. High confidence.
Outlook...
Wed... VFR except in scattered afternoon showers. Gusty winds up
to 35 kts possible with showers. Gusty winds continue into the
overnight.
Thu/Fri... VFR. Gusty W/NW winds especially Thu.
Sat/Sat night ... Increasing clouds the sub-VFR probable by
mid-morning with rains/fog developing. NE/E winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for most of today due to
W-NW winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Seas mainly 3 to
5 feet. WInds turn SW tonight at 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt are
possible, but confidence not high enough to issue a SCA for tonight
just yet.
Outlook...
Wed/Thu... SCA expected. Few showers Wed afternoon for the north
NJ waters, otherwise Fair.
Fri... Sub-SCA. Fair.
Fri night thru Sunday... SCA expected. Gales possible Sunday.
Rains and fog Fri night thru Sat night. Fair Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty NW winds will develop today at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high
as 30 mph. With surface dew points dropping into the teens this afternoon,
Min RH values will range from 25 to 35 percent.
Later this week, cold and dry air returns to the area later Wed. following
a cold front. Conditions are marginal for Fire Weather following the
front Wed, but become more concerning Thu. as dew points crash into
the teens and single numbers. Gusty W/NW winds will develop and enhance
fire spread potential. Coordination with fire weather partners and
possible statements/flags for Thursday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Johnson
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...MPS/OHara
MARINE...MPS/OHara
FIRE WEATHER...