National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KPSR 141737
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1037 AM MST Sun Apr 14 2024

.UPDATE...Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather disturbance moving through northern Arizona and southern
Utah will result in locally windy conditions and temperatures
retreating closer to the seasonal normal the next couple days.
However, strong high pressure building into the region later this
week will allow temperatures to warm rapidly with some lower desert
communities possibly approaching close to the 100 degree mark late
in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A well defined negative PV anomaly continues to propagate southeast
along the central California coast, however satellite imagery
depicts the first signs that subtropical jet energy was influencing
the circulation towards an eastward turn. As a result, the central
cold core and more pronounced height falls will translate inland
towards southern UT over the next 36 hours. Nevertheless, increased
pressure packing along a decaying cold front crossing the coast
range will support enhanced winds descending into lower elevations
of Imperial County again this afternoon and evening. While not the
optimal scenario for strong mountain rotors, deep mechanical
transport of higher momentum air will support a brief period of
advisory level winds. By Monday, the greatest combination of jet
energy, midlevel height falls, and tightened pressure gradient will
have shifted into New Mexico though a few stronger ridge top gusts
across Gila County may be common.

Operational and ensemble members continue to consolidate on a
singular solution later this week featuring mean troughing shifting
into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and dampened ridging building
over the SW Conus. Trends among NAEFS membership show less support
for higher amplitude riding, but rather H5 heights becoming
sequestered around 582dm due to low amplitude perturbations being
pulled eastward in an active subtropical jet. As a result, NBM
probabilities of lower elevation communities reaching 100F this week
have dropped considerably below 25%. Regardless, forecast confidence
is excellent that temperatures will hover 5F-10F above normal during
the latter half of the week with numerical guidance spreads
narrowing significantly. This pattern of quasi-zonal, dry westerly
flow should persist into the weekend yielding an extended period of
widespread minor HeatRisk, but nothing terribly unusual for mid/late
April.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1730Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Current light winds with westerly component will pick up speeds
early this afternoon. Westerly winds with gusts 20-25 kt are
expected through the afternoon and early evening hours. After
sunset the winds will decouple with speeds aob 10 kt expected
through the overnight hours. Winds are anticipated to maintain
their westerly component, with no typical diurnal switch to
easterly expected this evening. Early tomorrow morning winds will
become light and variable, with speeds aob 5 kt. Skies will
remain mostly clear through the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Current gusty westerly winds of 20-25 kt, at KIPL, will pick up
speed throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Gusts of
25-30 kt are anticipated this afternoon through very early
tomorrow morning. Strongest winds are expected early this evening
when winds may 35-40 kt, which could cause some patchy blowing
dust that could reduce visibility. Early tomorrow morning winds
will start to slow a little bit, however, periodic gusts of 15-20
kt are expected through the end of the TAF period. Meanwhile at
KBLH, winds will be southwesterly through the TAF period. Current
light winds will pick up speed early this afternoon, with gusts of
25-30 kt anticipated through the evening. Late this evening winds
will decouple, with speeds aob 7 kt lasting through the remainder
of the TAF period. Skies will remain mostly clear, at both
terminals, through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With dry weather prevailing, near normal temperatures early this
week will rapidly warm back into an above normal category during the
latter half of the week. Very breezy afternoon conditions will be
common through Monday, especially across western districts today and
eastern district ridge tops Monday. As minimum afternoon humidity
levels fall into a 10-25% range, a locally elevated fire danger will
exist. With warmer temperatures later in the week, minimum humidity
levels will dry further into a 10-20% range with single digits
common across lower desert locations. Overnight recovery will turn
poor to fair in a 20-40% range. However, lighter wind speeds will
preclude a greater fire danger and provide an excellent opportunity
for prescribed burning during the middle of the week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM PDT Monday for CAZ562.

     Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening
     for CAZ563-566-567.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...18
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...18