896
FXUS65 KPSR 072101
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
201 PM MST Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Near normal temperatures will continue through Thursday with
elevated wind speeds expected today and tomorrow. Temperatures will
warm to above normal on Friday with a gradual warming trend expected
through at least the beginning of next week, where afternoon high
temperatures will near tripple digits across portions of the lower
deserts. Dry conditions continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of this afternoon, mid-level water vapor reveals a large scale
trough over western CONUS with the low pressure system, associated
with this trough, moving into the Dakota`s. 850mb analysis reveals a
shortwave trough moving into southeastern California and western
Arizona. This shortwave trough is tightening the pressure gradient
overhead which is leading to some elevated wind gusts this afternoon
that will continue into the early evening. Wind gusts will generally
be around 20-25 mph in the lower deserts with gusts up to 30mph
possible in the high terrain to the north and east of the Phoenix
Metro. This shortwave trough will continue to move southeastward
overnight and bring a weak cold front into the Lower Colorado River
valley. Behind the front, occasional wind gusts of 30-35 mph are
possible in portions of southeastern California and far western
Arizona, with gusts up around 40 mph possible along the ridge tops.
Elsewhere, wind gusts of 20-25 mph are expected Wednesday afternoon
and early evening.

The aforementioned low pressure system will retrograde back towards
the southwest over the next couple of days, which will keep our
afternoon high temperatures near or slightly below normal through
Thursday. Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement that the low
pressure system will settle to our north by Friday and remain fairly
stationary into the beginning of next week, although it is
expected to gradually weaken. This will allow for afternoon high
temperatures to go back above normal on Friday with a slight
warming trend into the beginning of next week. The lower deserts
are expected to see high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s,
with portions of the lower deserts nearing tripple digits by the
start of next week. The higher terrain areas are forecasted to see
high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s and low 90s. Even
though our area will be under the influence of this trough into
next week, dry conditions are expected to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1818Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No significant weather issues will exist through tonight under
clear skies. Winds will continue to follow typical diurnal
patterns, with light easterly winds this morning becoming west to
southwest during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Occasional gusts up to around 20 kts is expected during the late
afternoon hours. Winds will weaken going into the overnight hours,
with easterly winds returning after midnight. Breezy westerly
winds will return again for Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, SKC
conditions will persist.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will favor the west to southwest at the TAF sites through
tonight before switching to the north early Wednesday morning as a
weak cold front pushes into the region. Can`t rule out a few
northerly gusts reaching upwards of 30-35 kts at KBLH by around
13-15Z, but the lack of mixing should overall inhibit more of
these stronger gusts reaching the terminal. Otherwise, SKC
conditions will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy conditions are expected today and tomorrow. Wind gusts around
20-25 mph are expected areawide this afternoon and early evening. A
cold front will cause wind gusts of 30-35 mph (and around 40 mph
along the ridgetops) in portions of southeastern California and far
western Arizona tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon.
Elsewhere wind gusts of 20-25 mph are expected during the afternoon
and early evening hours. Wind gusts will return to more seasonal
values (afternoon gusts up around 20 mph) areawide for the latter
half of the week. MinRHs, for the rest of this week, will be in
the 5-10% range across the lower deserts and in the 10-15% range
across the higher terrain. Overnight recoveries will be in the
20-40% range. Temperatures will be near, or slightly below, normal
through Thursday and return to above normal on Friday and through
the weekend. Dry conditions will persist into next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Berislavich
AVIATION...Smith/Young
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Kuhlman