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000
FXUS61 KRNK 172306
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
706 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low over the Great Lakes will move east with a weak
cold front crossing the central Appalachians late tonight. Most
of the shower and thunderstorm activity with this feature will
remain to our north. A dry day is expected Thursday with
northwesterly winds. A much stronger front will cross our area
Friday bringing some showers and storms, then cooler weather
arrives for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 705 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. An isolated shower is possible for Greenbrier County of West
Virginia tonight.

2. Drier weather with breezy winds are expected on Thursday.

An area of low pressure will cross the Great Lakes with a weak
cold front crossing the Appalachian Mountains tonight. Most of
the shower and thunderstorm activity with this frontal boundary
will remain to our north, but there may be an isolated shower
for parts of Greenbrier County of West Virginia. Clouds will
decrease later tonight although some upslope cloud cover may
exist in southeast West Virginia as the wind shifts towards the
northwest. A gusty southwest wind will also occur overnight
ahead of the frontal passage west of the Blue Ridge.

Winds will shift towards the northwest on Thursday and could
gust up to 20 mph. Temperatures are expected to remain above
normal with lows ranging from the lower 50s to the lower 60s,
but highs should climb into the 70s for the mountains and lower
80s to the east for Thursday. Dewpoints will also fall into the
upper 30s to the upper 40s by the afternoon, which will push
relative humidities below 30 percent in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1: Showers and thunderstorms Friday

2: Temperatures above normal

Low pressure and an associated cold front will move across the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states Friday and Friday night.
This will result in a good chance of showers and a few storms
across our mountains with higher uncertainty to the east. Attm
models struggle bringing the shower activity east of the
mountains, with QPF ranging from a quarter inch in the mountains
to less than a tenth of an inch in the piedmont.

The front is forecast to stall over the Carolinas Friday night
and may delay any clearing, but do think that temperatures will
come back down into a normal range. Until then expect above
normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1: Rain chances Saturday, Sunday, and Wednesday

2: Cooler than normal temperatures Sunday and Monday.

A weak low pressure system over the Carolinas will move off the
coast Saturday afternoon. Once this low is offshore, a cold
front will slide across the area Saturday night, followed by
cooler than normal temperatures Sunday and Monday. Some showers
and a few thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage
Saturday afternoon and evening.

A disturbance in eastern Texas will track across the Deep South
Saturday, then move off the Carolina Coast Sunday night. The
northern edge of the rain shield is expected to reach the
Highway 460 corridor Sunday afternoon, then exit the piedmont
around midnight. An area of weak high pressure will skirt across
the region Monday and Tuesday, allowing temperatures to return
to near normal levels. Showers reenter the area Wednesday as
another cold front tracks over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 705 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected along and east of the Blue Ridge
through tonight and Thursday. Gusty southwest winds up to 20
knots will be possible for BLF and LWB during the next few hours
ahead of a weak cold front. As the cold front moves eastward and
the winds shift towards the west and eventually to the northwest
by Thursday, some MVFR clouds may develop for BLF and LWB.
Northwest winds will gust up to 20 knots on Thursday, but it
should stay dry with VFR conditions expected for all terminals.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

VFR conditions are expected for Thursday night into early
Friday. However, a cold front will cross the area by late Friday
with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. The cold
front will exit eastward by Saturday, but some MVFR ceilings
may linger in the mountains through the morning. North winds
will provide some clearing for late Saturday, but more moisture
may surge northeastward during Sunday and Monday to bring
another chance of rain.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/PW
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PW