Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 240936
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
436 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to significant fire danger Sunday, especially east
  of Springfield. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for
  central MO from 1pm-7pm Sunday.

- Breezy all day Sunday, but especially overnight into Monday,
 with sustained speeds of 20-30 mph and gusts of 35 to 45 mph. A
 Wind Advisory is in effect from 7pm Sunday through 1pm Monday.

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday evening through
  Monday. Highest rainfall amounts east of Highway 65, with
  localized totals up to 2-3" possible. This amount of rain will
  cause a few low water crossings to flood.

- Much cooler temperatures with several chances for below
  freezing low temperatures Tuesday-Thursday mornings, likely
  bringing a hard freeze with it.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview:

Satellite shows a thick cloud deck beginning to move into the area
from the west in association with a deep surface low developing
along the lee of the Rocky Mountains. Widespread wind gusts of 20+
mph were recorded on Saturday, and gusts have continued to strengthen
overnight into Sunday as the developing low tightens the pressure
gradient across the central US. A strong (160+ knots) upper-level
jet extends along the base of a deep trough in the desert southwest
that is lifting northeast into the Plains. Additionally, a robust
(55-65 knots) low-level jet is pushing northward off the Gulf and
into the Plains, which is transporting robust moisture to our west.


Today through Monday night:


Winds:
The developing low over eastern Colorado is expected to
strengthen, with pretty good consensus between models of
pressures dropping 982mb or lower at their strongest. This will
cause a profound pressure gradient across the area, continuing
the trend of strong winds. Most models aren`t initializing winds
well, causing some pause in taking those short term forecasts at
face value, especially when local rules of thumb and the
strength of the low-level jet are considered. For that reason,
we`ve decided to stick with the higher end of guidance for
winds, with expected sustained winds of 20-30mph and gusts of
35-45mph on Sunday and overnight into Monday, with the highest
winds expected early Monday morning. These values hit our Wind
Advisory criteria, so a Wind Advisory has been issued from 7pm
Sunday through 1pm Monday.

Fire Weather:
As the cyclone moves east, the dry conveyor belt of the system
will push into central Missouri, facilitating relative humidity
values as low as 20-30% in and around the Mark Twain National
Forest area. Combined with the strong winds, fire weather
concerns in this area are significant, with elevated fire
weather expected further south and west. For that reason, a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for Sunday afternoon from 1pm-7pm
in central Missouri. It`s possible the Red Flag Warning may need
to be further expanded during the day on Sunday if the dry air
pushes further west than currently anticipated.

Rain:
Keep your bumbershoot handy, because when it rains, it pours!
As the jet pushes east, robust upper-level divergence and intense
vorticity advection will bring strong and widespread synoptic lift
to the area. There could be a rumble of thunder here or there, but
with limited elevated instability, severe weather is not expected.

With the moisture that`s being transported north from the Gulf,
widespread heavy rain is expected as the cyclone moves west on
Sunday night. NAEFS shows a corridor of integrated vapor transport
in excess of 750 kg/m*s (it`s central Plains atmospheric river
season!) and model sounding PWATs are above 1" come Monday morning,
indicating more than enough moisture for excessive rainfall, especially
considering the 90th percentile of PWATs for this time of year is
around 0.9-0.95. An ECMWF QPF EFI (say that 5 times fast) of 0.9
also suggests anomalously heavy rain within the corridor of strongest
IVT, and WPC has included most of our area in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall.

The gradient of precipitation totals will be fairly steep from west
to east, with the corridor of heaviest rainfall roughly centered
along a Branson-to-Rolla line. Areas east of Springfield within this
band may see as much as 2-3" of rain, causing a localized flooding
threat, with low water crossings most vulnerable. Totals will decrease
moving west, with totals more in the 0.25-0.5" range near the
Kansas/Missouri border.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

After this system moves out on Tuesday, the weather will quiet down
significantly, with the primary headline being temperatures. The
cyclone will haul some frosty air in behind it, dropping temperatures
significantly. Temperatures are only expected to reach the upper
40s Tuesday and Wednesday, which will be 10-15 degrees below normal,
as normal highs for this time of year are in the low 60s. Low temperatures
between 25-30 degrees are possible on Tuesday night into Wednesday,
and normal lows are usually in the upper 30s. A hard freeze appears
likely on Tuesday night due to these sub-freezing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Though all three TAF sites will likely remain VFR through the
TAF period, there`s still lots of "fun" stuff happening with
this complex setup. Over the last few hours, BBG has improved
from MVFR conditions, which was most likely due to near-surface
smoke from a fire upstream in AR. Lingering haze from this smoke
in the area isn`t out of the question.

The low-level jet will continue to beef up overnight, bringing
low-level wind shear concerns up to 40-50kts through Sunday
morning. At SGF and BBG, there will be a local minima in wind
shear during the day before returning in force again Sunday
night. JLN will see the worst of the wind shear, and likely
won`t dip below 30kts of shear at any point during the day
Sunday with the fringes of the 60kt low-level jet overhead. AWC
also highlights concern for LLWS with an AIRMET out through at
least 23Z Sunday.

Part of the LLWS can be traced back to surface winds, which
will be strong and gusty through the TAF period. Wind direction
will be slightly variable but from the southeast, with sustained
speeds of 20-25kts and gusts from 25-35+ knots. Have a feeling
that the models are underdoing wind speeds/gusts at the surface,
so wind increases may be coming in future updates.

Last thing- ~30% PoPs at JLN starting late Sunday afternoon. All
TAF sites can expect rain for sure Sunday night, though
confidence isn`t particularly high that showers will start as
early as 21Z, thus the prob30. Another thing to monitor going
into Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Record Precipitation:

March 25:
KUNO: 1.40/2010

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ056>058-069>071-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden


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