Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 161518
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1018 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

No update is needed to the overnight forecast package at this
time.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Today will see the brief interlude between two systems come to an
end with the return of showers and storms from the southwest. This
new activity will begin across portions of deep east Texas this
morning, spreading east to cover much of the region west of the I-49
corridor in the early afternoon, overtaking the entire ArkLaTex by
evening. There will be little variety in temperatures this
afternoon, as highs look to remain near the 70 degree mark for the
majority of area sites by a margin of a degree or two. Overnight
lows will range from the lower 50s north to just above 60 degrees
south by daybreak Sunday morning.

This weekend will see little major change to the upper level
synoptic pattern of late, with the large closed low ambling over
Arizona, and the associated upper level steering around it
continuing to funnel moisture into the ArkLaTex on southwesterly
flow, while a minor area of ridging attempts to organize itself on
the east side of the low before getting folded into the
increasingly zonal flow aloft late in the weekend.

The threat of severe weather will be comparably lower today than the
past two days, but still nonzero, specifically in the Lufkin area of
deep east Texas. Reasonably steep lapse rates suggest that some
damaging hail will be possible with stronger storms. The remainder
of the region is included in a General Thunder outlook.

Showers and storms look to continue areawide through the overnight
hours Saturday into Sunday before quickly coming to an end from
north to south Sunday morning, leaving quiet conditions in their
wake for Sunday afternoon. Areas along and north of I-20 may
experience some clearing as sundown approaches, but cloud cover will
hold on for most of the day Sunday across the region, while
temperatures range from the middle 60s north and east to the lower
70s south and east. Areas along and south of the I-20 corridor are
included in a General Thunder outlook again Sunday, for which
impacts should be expected early in the day, diminishing by sundown.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

By Sunday evening, the surface cold front responsible for helping to
sweep the last of this weekend`s showers and storms out of the
ArkLaTex to the southeast will be funneling in much drier air in
full force, putting a dent in the humidity of the past few days and
setting the stage for a more prolonged respite from the rain. By
Monday morning, temperatures look to have fallen into the lower 40s
with a few upper 30s north, ranging to just below 50 degrees south.

Behind the aforementioned cold front, surface high pressure will
build in, positioned over the Central Plains. Upper level ridging
will form over Texas on the east side of the stubborn upper level
low, and this ridging will make its way east over the ArkLaTex as
the week continues, followed by the upper level troughing
developed from the stubborn low itself which will by this point
genuinely be in motion, at last relocating itself from the desert
southwest.

The first half of the week will thus remain dry for the Four State
Region, while temperatures remain at or slightly below seasonable
values, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 30s and
40s. A more formidable punch of colder air driven south on amplified
northwesterly flow aloft over much of the eastern CONUS, causing
some area sites in southern Arkansas to take aim at dropping to near-
freezing values at least once more on the coldest morning of the
stretch (most likely Tuesday) during the last week of astronomical
winter. By Wednesday, the arrival of the upper level ridging will
rebound temperatures to more seasonable values.

The upper level troughing looks to start making its approach towards
ArkLaTex airspace by midweek, heralded by returning rain chances as
early as Wednesday afternoon north and west, becoming more
widespread overnight into Thursday, as showers and storms continue
areawide through early Friday, not clearing the area altogether
through the end of this extended forecast period, while the upper
level trough continues its push into the deep south.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A mix of IFR/low MVFR cigs have developed early this morning
across much of E TX/N LA, with cigs having begun to lift over SW
AR. While some gradual improvement to cigs are expected at
TXK?ELD, cigs will be slower to lift farther S across E TX/N LA,
with MVFR cigs lingering through the afternoon at the remaining
terminals except MLU, which should return to VFR by early
afternoon. The lower cigs will persist through over E TX,
especially as areas of -SHRA now developing over WCntrl TX begins
to spread E into E TX/SE OK by early to mid afternoon. These -SHRA
will eventually move into extreme SW AR/Wrn LA between 21-00Z, and
MLU/ELD by mid to late evening. Thus, a gradual deterioration in
cigs is expected, with cigs eventually becoming IFR after 00Z over
E TX, across across the remainder of the region by late evening
into the overnight hours. Some embedded TSRA will be possible
within the convection, with some reduction to vsbys expected as
well. Given the uncertainty as to the extent of thunder, have held
off mention in the TAFs attm for all but LFK, where it was
prevailed after 00Z Sunday. The convection should linger through
much of the overnight hours, although cigs may lower to LIFR after
08Z over E TX once the heavier rains diminish. ENE winds around 5kts
will continue through the TAF period. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  59  68  47 /  40  80  40   0
MLU  72  57  64  44 /  20  80  60   0
DEQ  71  52  68  39 /  30  50  10   0
TXK  70  55  67  43 /  40  60  20   0
ELD  72  53  64  41 /  20  70  30   0
TYR  69  58  70  47 /  70  70  20  10
GGG  70  58  69  47 /  60  80  30   0
LFK  72  61  71  50 /  70  80  50  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20


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