Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
000
FXUS64 KSHV 132244
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
544 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
An unsettled weather pattern will begin to unfold across the region
tonight, as shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase north
of I-30. These will be the first of many rounds of thunderstorms
expected to move across the region into the weekend, with severe
weather chances increasing into Friday morning as well. Aloft, a
massive closed-low will remain wobbling just to the north of Baja
California, keeping our region firmly situated in SW flow aloft.
Elsewhere, a surface trough and cold front will begin to move
through the south Plains, setting the stage for our upcoming weather
event/s.
By Thursday night, thunderstorms will be increasing in coverage
north of I-30 in a moderately unstable environment. An enhanced risk
for severe weather has been introduced for these areas, mainly to
account for the overnight/early morning hours into Friday. The
overall thinking here is that as these storms get going, they will
be capable of damaging winds and large hail under very steep mid-
level lapse rates. As the cold front begins to move into the region,
these threats will begin to shift to the south into the slight risk
areas. However, the large hail threat will slightly diminish, with
damaging winds becoming the primary threat during the process.
However, this will likely occur closer to Friday morning. An
isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out, but the low-level wind
shear values are not exactly where you`d like to see them for
tornadic activity. However, hodographs certainly support the
potential for a tornado or two, with slight modifications to the low-
level shear potentially resulting in an increased tornado threat.
It also looks like flash flooding may be an issue in these same
areas, as training thunderstorms look possible during the same
timeframe. Right now, the flash flooding threat is more conditional,
but more than a few high-res models paint the training thunderstorm
scenario into late-Friday morning. So while overall QPF values don`t
currently scream flooding or flash flooding, that could quickly
change in 1-2 rounds of storms. Again, a more conditional threat,
but certainly one worth mentioning.
/44/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Rain chances will continue to linger into the weekend, with the
surface front working to the coast. However, the 850mb front will
linger just north of the region, allowing for the rain to remain.
Temperatures into the long-term will also be mostly effected by the
rain and cloud cover opposed to the front, as the elevated front
won`t kick through the region until Monday. In turn, look for cool
and dry conditions to return to the region to start the new workweek.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Cu field and low VFR ceilings are trying to mix out late this
afternoon but they will be back later this evening in the form of
returning MVFR ceilings. Midnight through 3 am, all terminal sites
should be under the influence of MVFR ceilings and added TEMPO
groups for the possibility of brief IFR ceilings just under 1kft
between 10-14z most locations. MVFR ceilings will be slow to lift
on Thursday but did have them returning to low VFR variety in the
19-22z timeframe with VCSH mention very late in the TAF period at
the TYR and TXK terminals only. Look for SSE winds overnight with
sustained winds near 10kts with higher gusts, mainly across our NE
TX terminal locations. Those winds will continue into the day
Thursday.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 84 66 77 / 10 30 90 80
MLU 65 83 66 74 / 0 40 70 90
DEQ 63 81 58 71 / 30 70 90 40
TXK 67 83 63 72 / 20 60 100 60
ELD 63 80 62 72 / 10 50 90 80
TYR 69 82 64 73 / 10 50 80 80
GGG 68 83 64 75 / 10 40 80 80
LFK 69 86 66 79 / 0 20 60 90
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13